ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2012
Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 159 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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159 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Two decades of resurrection studies: What have we learned about contemporary evolution of plant species?American journal of botany · 2026Pooled it
- Spectral network analysis illuminates coordinated plant traits across a climate gradient.The New phytologist · 2026Article
- Evolution of flowering phenology over 44 years of climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Dynamic evolution of FLC/MAF-like genes accompanying Brassicaceae radiation.Annals of botany · 2026Article
- Increased adaptive potential in novel environments can be predicted from genetic variance in development time expressed in native environments.Evolution letters · 2026Article
- Allele frequency and gene expression differences under key winter stresses in temporal populations of two timothy cultivars.TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik · 2026Article
- Genetic basis of temporal variation in phenology in a woody perennial plant.NPJ systems biology and applications · 2026Article
- Introgression despite minimal hybridization: mating system modulates phenotypic associations with introgression in Clarkia.The New phytologist · 2026Article
- Rapid Surveys Reveal Temporal Variation in Flowering Community Phenology in a Great Basin Desert Ecosystem.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Phenotypic plasticity evolved for climate variability constrains performance under climate warming.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Does genetic variation in controlled experiments predict phenology of wild plants?Journal of evolutionary biology · 2026Article
- Evaluating the vulnerability of critical early life stages in plants during heat extremes.Conservation physiology · 2026Article
- Phenological Variation and Evolution Across Space and Time in the Scarlet Monkeyflower (Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Retrospective phenology in western Mediterranean plants: revealing climate change patterns through herbarium specimens.AoB PLANTS · 2025Article
- Complexities of Phenological Shifts for Plant-Pollinator Interactions and Ways Forward.Integrative and comparative biology · 2025Review
- Evidence of plasticity inAoB PLANTS · 2025Article
- Herbarium specimens reveal a constrained seasonal climate niche despite diverged annual climates across a wildflower clade.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Landscape transcriptomics as a tool for addressing global change effects across diverse species.Molecular ecology resources · 2025Review
- Context-dependent conflicting selection on flowering phenology.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Review
99 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life-history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change, but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38 year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the US Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973 to 2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favoured earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010-2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20 per cent of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change.
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