Evidence map›Paper›PMID 22781175›Full record

ArticleAIDS (London, England)2012

The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the age composition of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

Jan A C Hontelez, Sake J de Vlas, Rob Baltussen, Marie-Louise Newell, Roel Bakker, Frank Tanser, Mark Lurie, Till Bärnighausen

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in AIDS (London, England), 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 107 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
107citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

107 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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47 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Jan A C HontelezDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. j.hontelez@erasmusmc.nl
Sake J de Vlas
Rob Baltussen
Marie-Louise Newell
Roel Bakker
Frank Tanser
Mark Lurie
Till Bärnighausen

Funding

Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Epidemic DynamicsR01MH083539 · NIMH · BROWN UNIVERSITY · PI LURIE, MARK NATHAN · 2009 to 2012
$2.2M
Understanding causal pathways of HIV acquisition and transmission: a multi-level,R01HD058482 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF KWAZULU-NATAL · PI BARNIGHAUSEN, TILL, TANSER, FRANK COURTENEY · 2008 to 2012
$1.2M
NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD058482NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD058482-01NIMH NIH HHS 1R01MH083539-01NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH083539Wellcome Trust 097410
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionAntiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage is rapidly expanding in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Based on the effect of ART on survival of HIV-infected people and HIV transmission, the age composition of the HIV epidemic in the region is expected to change in the coming decades. We quantify the change in the age composition of HIV-infected people in all countries in SSA.

methodsWe used STDSIM, a stochastic microsimulation model, and developed an approach to represent HIV prevalence and treatment coverage in 43 countries in SSA, using publicly available data. We predict future trends in HIV prevalence and total number of HIV-infected people aged 15-49 years and 50 years or older for different ART coverage levels.

resultsWe show that, if treatment coverage continues to increase at present rates, the total number of HIV-infected people aged 50 years or older will nearly triple over the coming years: from 3.1 million in 2011 to 9.1 million in 2040, dramatically changing the age composition of the HIV epidemic in SSA. In 2011, about one in seven HIV-infected people was aged 50 years or older; in 2040, this ratio will be larger than one in four.

conclusionThe HIV epidemic in SSA is rapidly ageing, implying changing needs and demands in many social sectors, including health, social care, and old-age pension systems. Health policymakers need to anticipate the impact of the changing HIV age composition in their planning for future capacity in these systems.

Indexed as

AgingHealth Services Needs and DemandAcquired Immunodeficiency SyndromeAdolescentAdultAfrica South of the SaharaAnti-HIV AgentsEpidemicsFemaleHealth PolicyHealth Services AccessibilityHumansLife ExpectancyLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedAnti-HIV Agents

Identifiers

PMID22781175
PMCPMC3886374

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.