Trial reportBMC medical research methodology2012
Simultaneous evaluation of abstinence and relapse using a Markov chain model in smokers enrolled in a two-year randomized trial.
Trial report in BMC medical research methodology, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Differences in the effectiveness of individual-level smoking cessation interventions by socioeconomic status.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2025Pooled it
- Effectiveness of motivational interviewing, health education and brief advice in a population of smokers who are not ready to quit.BMC medical research methodology · 2018Trial
- Improving Prediction of Tobacco Use Over Time: Findings from Waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2024Article
- A Comparison of Mathematical and Statistical Modeling with Longitudinal Data: An Application to Ecological Momentary Assessment of Behavior Change in Individuals with Alcohol Use Disorder.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- A Bayesian transition model for missing longitudinal binary outcomes and an application to a smoking cessation study.Statistical modelling · 2020Article
- Motivational interviewing for smoking cessation.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2019Review
- Underutilization of Evidence-Based Smoking Cessation Support Strategies Despite High Smoking Addiction Burden in Peripheral Artery Disease Specialty Care: Insights from the International PORTRAIT Registry.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2018Observational
- Changes in cigarette smoking initiation, cessation, and relapse among U.S. adults: a comparison of two longitudinal samples.Tobacco induced diseases · 2017Article
- Markov Modeling to Estimate the Population Impact of Emerging Tobacco Products: A Proof-of-Concept Study.Tobacco regulatory science · 2015Article
- The predictive value of smoking expectancy and the heritability of its accuracy.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2014Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundGEE and mixed models are powerful tools to compare treatment effects in longitudinal smoking cessation trials. However, they are not capable of assessing the relapse (from abstinent back to smoking) simultaneously with cessation, which can be studied by transition models.
methodsWe apply a first-order Markov chain model to analyze the transition of smoking status measured every 6 months in a 2-year randomized smoking cessation trial, and to identify what factors are associated with the transition from smoking to abstinent and from abstinent to smoking. Missing values due to non-response are assumed non-ignorable and handled by the selection modeling approach.
resultsSmokers receiving high-intensity disease management (HDM), of male gender, lower daily cigarette consumption, higher motivation and confidence to quit, and having serious attempts to quit were more likely to become abstinent (OR = 1.48, 1.66, 1.03, 1.15, 1.09 and 1.34, respectively) in the next 6 months. Among those who were abstinent, lower income and stronger nicotine dependence (OR = 1.72 for ≤ vs. > 40 K and OR = 1.75 for first cigarette ≤ vs. > 5 min) were more likely to have relapse in the next 6 months.
conclusionsMarkov chain models allow investigation of dynamic smoking-abstinence behavior and suggest that relapse is influenced by different factors than cessation. The knowledge of treatments and covariates in transitions in both directions may provide guidance for designing more effective interventions on smoking cessation and relapse prevention.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.