ArticlePloS one2012
Situational awareness of influenza activity based on multiple streams of surveillance data using multivariate dynamic linear model.
Article in PloS one, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- Monitoring School Absenteeism for Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Pooled it
- Influenza vaccination for healthcare workers who care for people aged 60 or older living in long-term care institutions.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2016Pooled it
- Improving influenza forecast in the tropics and subtropics: a case study of Hong Kong.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Observational
- Dynamic interactions of influenza viruses in Hong Kong during 1998-2018.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Towards precision critical care management of blood pressure in hemorrhagic stroke patients using dynamic linear models.PloS one · 2019Article
- Methodological challenges to multivariate syndromic surveillance: a case study using Swiss animal health data.BMC veterinary research · 2016Article
- Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong.PLoS computational biology · 2015Article
- Characterizing Influenza surveillance systems performance: application of a Bayesian hierarchical statistical model to Hong Kong surveillance data.BMC public health · 2014Article
- Performance of eHealth data sources in local influenza surveillance: a 5-year open cohort study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2014Article
- Is influenza-like illness a useful concept and an appropriate test of influenza vaccine effectiveness?Vaccine · 2014Review
- A Practitioner-Driven Research Agenda for Syndromic Surveillance.Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMultiple sources of influenza surveillance data are becoming more available; however integration of these data streams for situational awareness of influenza activity is less explored. METHODS AND
resultsWe applied multivariate time-series methods to sentinel outpatient and school absenteeism surveillance data in Hong Kong during 2004-2009. School absenteeism data and outpatient surveillance data experienced interruptions due to school holidays and changes in public health guidelines during the pandemic, including school closures and the establishment of special designated flu clinics, which in turn provided 'drop-in' fever counts surveillance data. A multivariate dynamic linear model was used to monitor influenza activity throughout epidemics based on all available data. The inferred level followed influenza activity closely at different times, while the inferred trend was less competent with low influenza activity. Correlations between inferred level and trend from the multivariate model and reference influenza activity, measured by the product of weekly laboratory influenza detection rates and weekly general practitioner influenza-like illness consultation rates, were calculated and compared with those from univariate models. Over the whole study period, there was a significantly higher correlation (ρ = 0.82, p≤0.02) for the inferred trend based on the multivariate model compared to other univariate models, while the inferred trend from the multivariate model performed as well as the best univariate model in the pre-pandemic and the pandemic period. The inferred trend and level from the multivariate model was able to match, if not outperform, the best univariate model albeit with missing data plus drop-in and drop-out of different surveillance data streams. An overall influenza index combining level and trend was constructed to demonstrate another potential use of the method.
conclusionsOur results demonstrate the potential use of multiple streams of influenza surveillance data to promote situational awareness about the level and trend of seasonal and pandemic influenza activity.
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Registered trials
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