ArticleEpidemics2012
Agent-based and phylogenetic analyses reveal how HIV-1 moves between risk groups: injecting drug users sustain the heterosexual epidemic in Latvia.
Article in Epidemics, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 34 citations in OpenAlex.
- Identifying impacts of contact tracing on HIV epidemiological inference from phylogenetic data.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- Agent based modelling of blood borne viruses: a scoping review.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- A deep learning approach to real-time HIV outbreak detection using genetic data.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- A Tale of Three Recent Pandemics: Influenza, HIV and SARS-CoV-2.Frontiers in microbiology · 2022Review
- Employing phylogenetic tree shape statistics to resolve the underlying host population structure.BMC bioinformatics · 2021Article
- Phylogenetics in HIV transmission: taking within-host diversity into account.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2019Review
- Molecular epidemiology reveals the role of war in the spread of HIV in Ukraine.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018Article
- Phylodynamic Inference across Epidemic Scales.Molecular biology and evolution · 2017Article
- Enhanced use of phylogenetic data to inform public health approaches to HIV among men who have sex with men.Sexual health · 2017Review
- Inference of Transmission Network Structure from HIV Phylogenetic Trees.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
- Integrating molecular epidemiology and social network analysis to study infectious diseases: Towards a socio-molecular era for public health.Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases · 2016Review
- Healthcare avoidance by people who inject drugs in Bangkok, Thailand.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2016Article
- Phylodynamics with Migration: A Computational Framework to Quantify Population Structure from Genomic Data.Molecular biology and evolution · 2016Article
- Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana.Epidemics · 2015Article
- Prevention of early HIV transmissions might be more important in emerging or generalizing epidemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2015Article
- Timing and order of transmission events is not directly reflected in a pathogen phylogeny.Molecular biology and evolution · 2014Article
- Do metropolitan HIV epidemic histories and programs for people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men predict AIDS incidence and mortality among heterosexuals?Annals of epidemiology · 2014Article
- Coupling Vector-host Dynamics with Weather Geography and Mitigation Measures to Model Rift Valley Fever in Africa.Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena · 2014Article
- When to start antiretroviral therapy: the need for an evidence base during early HIV infection.BMC medicine · 2013Article
- Uncovering epidemiological dynamics in heterogeneous host populations using phylogenetic methods.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2013Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Injecting drug users (IDUs) are a driving force for the spread of HIV-1 in Latvia and other Baltic States, accounting for a majority of cases. However, in recent years, heterosexual cases have increased disproportionately. It is unclear how the changes in incidence patterns in Latvia can be explained, and how important IDUs are for the heterosexual sub-epidemic. We introduce a novel epidemic model and use phylogenetic analyses in parallel to examine the spread of HIV-1 in Latvia between 1987 and 2010. Using a hybrid framework with a mean-field description for the susceptible population and an agent-based model for the infecteds, we track infected individuals and follow transmission histories dynamically formed during the simulation. The agent-based simulations and the phylogenetic analysis show that more than half of the heterosexual transmissions in Latvia were caused by IDU, which sustain the heterosexual epidemic. Indeed, we find that heterosexual clusters are characterized by short transmission chains with up to 63% of the chains dying out after the first introduction. In the simulations, the distribution of transmission chain sizes follows a power law distribution, which is confirmed by the phylogenetic data. Our models indicate that frequent introductions reduced the extinction probability of an autonomously spreading heterosexual HIV-1 epidemic, which now has the potential to dominate the spread of the overall epidemic in the future. Furthermore, our model shows that social heterogeneity of the susceptible population can explain the shift in HIV-1 incidence in Latvia over the course of the epidemic. Thus, the decrease in IDU incidence may be due to local heterogeneities in transmission, rather than the implementation of control measures. Increases in susceptibles, through social or geographic movement of IDU, could lead to a boost in HIV-1 infections in this risk group. Targeting individuals that bridge social groups would help prevent further spread of the epidemic.
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