Evidence map›Paper›PMID 22653982›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2012

The effectiveness and cost effectiveness of dark chocolate consumption as prevention therapy in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: best case scenario analysis using a Markov model.

Ella Zomer, Alice Owen, Dianna J Magliano, Danny Liew, Christopher M Reid

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
18.2field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 106 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Chocolate--guilty pleasure or healthy supplement?Journal of clinical hypertension (Greenwich, Conn.) · 2014
    Review
  7. Tea and flavonoids: where we are, where to go next.The American journal of clinical nutrition · 2013
    Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Natural cocoa ingestion reduced liver damage in mice infected withResearch and reports in tropical medicine · 2012
    Article
  11. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Ella ZomerCCRE Therapeutics, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, The Alfred Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Alice Owen
Dianna J Magliano
Danny Liew
Christopher M Reid
Monash University · AUBaker Heart and Diabetes Institute · AUThe Alfred Hospital · AUUniversity of Melbourne · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo model the long term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of daily dark chocolate consumption in a population with metabolic syndrome at high risk of cardiovascular disease.

designBest case scenario analysis using a Markov model.

settingAustralian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study.

participants2013 people with hypertension who met the criteria for metabolic syndrome, with no history of cardiovascular disease and not receiving antihypertensive therapy.

main outcome measuresTreatment effects associated with dark chocolate consumption derived from published meta-analyses were used to determine the absolute number of cardiovascular events with and without treatment. Costs associated with cardiovascular events and treatments were applied to determine the potential amount of funding required for dark chocolate therapy to be considered cost effective.

resultsDaily consumption of dark chocolate (polyphenol content equivalent to 100 g of dark chocolate) can reduce cardiovascular events by 85 (95% confidence interval 60 to 105) per 10,000 population treated over 10 years. $A40 (£25; €31; $42) could be cost effectively spent per person per year on prevention strategies using dark chocolate. These results assume 100% compliance and represent a best case scenario.

conclusionsThe blood pressure and cholesterol lowering effects of dark chocolate consumption are beneficial in the prevention of cardiovascular events in a population with metabolic syndrome. Daily dark chocolate consumption could be an effective cardiovascular preventive strategy in this population.

Indexed as

CacaoAgedCardiovascular DiseasesCost-Benefit AnalysisFemaleHumansHypercholesterolemiaHypertensionMaleMarkov ChainsMeta-Analysis as TopicMetabolic SyndromeMiddle AgedPrognosisRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID22653982
PMCPMC3365141
OpenAlexW2140284068

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.