ArticleComputational and mathematical methods in medicine2012
The time required to estimate the case fatality ratio of influenza using only the tip of an iceberg: joint estimation of the virulence and the transmission potential.
Article in Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis coupled with contact tracing in reducing the transmission of the influenza A (H1N1-2009): a systematic review.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2013Pooled it
- COVID-19 and the flu: data simulations and computational modelling to guide public health strategies.Family practice · 2021Article
- Delay-Adjusted Age-Specific COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates in a High Testing Setting: South Korea, February 2020 to February 2021.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Estimation of the case fatality rate based on stratification for the COVID-19 outbreak.PloS one · 2021Article
- Clinician-researcher's perspectives on clinical research during the COVID19 pandemic.PloS one · 2020Article
- Transmission dynamics of cholera in Yemen, 2017: a real time forecasting.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2017Article
- Optimizing the precision of case fatality ratio estimates under the surveillance pyramid approach.American journal of epidemiology · 2014Article
- Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2014Article
- Dynamics of a new strain of the H1N1 influenza A virus incorporating the effects of repetitive contacts.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2014Article
- Age-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2013Article
- Early detection of nosocomial outbreaks caused by rare pathogens: a case study employing score prediction interval.Osong public health and research perspectives · 2012Article
- Real-time investigation of measles epidemics with estimate of vaccine efficacy.International journal of biological sciences · 2012Article
- The relationship between tuberculosis and influenza death during the influenza (H1N1) pandemic from 1918-19.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2012Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Estimating the case fatality ratio (CFR) of a novel strain of influenza virus during the early stage of the pandemic is one of key epidemiological tasks to be conducted as rapid research response. Past experience during the epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza A (H1N1-2009) posed several technical challenges in estimating the CFR in real time. The present study aimed to develop a simple method to estimate the CFR based on readily available datasets, that is, confirmed cases and deaths, while addressing some of the known technical issues. To assess the reliability and validity of the proposed method, we examined the minimum length of time required for the assigned CFR to be included within the 95% confidence intervals and for the estimated CFR to be below a prespecified cut-off value by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Overall, the smaller the transmission potential was, the longer it took to compare the estimated CFR against the cut-off value. If policymaking and public health response have to be made based on the CFR estimate derived from the proposed method and readily available data, it should be noted that the successful estimation may take longer than a few months.
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Registered trials
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