ArticleJournal of mathematical biology2013
Chaos in a seasonally perturbed SIR model: avian influenza in a seabird colony as a paradigm.
Article in Journal of mathematical biology, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Investigating a deterministic canonical model for tropical influenza.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Generation of multi-scrolls in corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) chaotic system and its impact on the zero-covid policy.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Generalized external synchronization of networks based on clustered pandemic systems-The approach of Covid-19 towards influenza.PloS one · 2023Article
- COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Mutation induced infection waves in diseases like COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Pharmacometric analysis of seasonal influenza epidemics and the effect of vaccination using sentinel surveillance data.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2022Article
- Modeling analysis revealed the distinct global transmission patterns of influenza A viruses and their influencing factors.Integrative zoology · 2021Article
- FPGA Realizations of Chaotic Epidemic and Disease Models Including Covid-19.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2021Article
- How can contemporary climate research help understand epidemic dynamics? Ensemble approach and snapshot attractors.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Chaotic dynamics in the seasonally forced SIR epidemic model.Journal of mathematical biology · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Seasonality is a complex force in nature that affects multiple processes in wild animal populations. In particular, seasonal variations in demographic processes may considerably affect the persistence of a pathogen in these populations. Furthermore, it has been long observed in computer simulations that under seasonal perturbations, a host-pathogen system can exhibit complex dynamics, including the transition to chaos, as the magnitude of the seasonal perturbation increases. In this paper, we develop a seasonally perturbed Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of avian influenza in a seabird colony. Numerical simulations of the model give rise to chaotic recurrent epidemics for parameters that reflect the ecology of avian influenza in a seabird population, thereby providing a case study for chaos in a host- pathogen system. We give a computer-assisted exposition of the existence of chaos in the model using methods that are based on the concept of topological hyperbolicity. Our approach elucidates the geometry of the chaos in the phase space of the model, thereby offering a mechanism for the persistence of the infection. Finally, the methods described in this paper may be immediately extended to other infections and hosts, including humans.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.