ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2012
Heterogeneity in tuberculosis transmission and the role of geographic hotspots in propagating epidemics.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT03028129 (Primary Prophylaxis for Prevention of TB in Prison's Populations), which is not on this map. Cited by 116 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Primary Prophylaxis for Prevention of TB in Prison's Populations
Who cites it
116 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 176 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mortality and associated factors among patients with TB-HIV co-infection in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Pooled it
- Estimating the yield of tuberculosis from key populations to inform targeted interventions in South Africa: a scoping review.BMJ global health · 2020Pooled it
- Spatially targeted screening to reduce tuberculosis transmission in high-incidence settings.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2019Pooled it
- Potential for Controlling Cholera Using a Ring Vaccination Strategy: Re-analysis of Data from a Cluster-Randomized Clinical Trial.PLoS medicine · 2016Trial
- Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Trial
- Quantifying the community transmission ofEmerging microbes & infections · 2026Article
- Potential health impacts and costs of active case finding guided by Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity survey results in Blantyre, Malawi: A mathematical modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Article
- Development and validation of a machine learning model for community-based tuberculosis screening among persons aged ≥ 15 years in South Africa and Zambia.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Genomic epidemiology ofMicrobial genomics · 2026Article
- Identification of tuberculosis transmission hotspots in urban China using surveillance data: a machine learning approach based on genomic and spatial analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Transmission dynamics and control of tuberculosis in high-altitude regions: a modelling study in Xizang, China.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Heterogeneity in Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity in young children in Blantyre, Malawi: A community-based survey.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Article
- A retrospective analysis of tuberculosis notification trends and spatial distribution in South Africa, 2005-2012.Discover public health · 2026Article
- Culturally relevant settings for TB transmission in an African city with endemic TB.IJTLD open · 2025Article
- Epidemiological trends and burden of mortality from HIV/AIDS and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis without extensive drug-resistance across Africa: A global burden of disease analysis (1990-2021).Journal of clinical tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases · 2025Article
- The Role of Community Networks in the Transmission and Persistence ofOpen forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Self-reported prevalence of tuberculosis: unveiling spatial representation in the districts of Tamil Nadu.International health · 2025Article
- Characteristics of molecular epidemiology and transmitted drug resistance among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Lishui, China from 2020 to 2023.Virology journal · 2025Article
56 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The importance of high-incidence "hotspots" to population-level tuberculosis (TB) incidence remains poorly understood. TB incidence varies widely across countries, but within smaller geographic areas (e.g., cities), TB transmission may be more homogeneous than other infectious diseases. We constructed a steady-state compartmental model of TB in Rio de Janeiro, replicating nine epidemiological variables (e.g., TB incidence) within 1% of their observed values. We estimated the proportion of TB transmission originating from a high-incidence hotspot (6.0% of the city's population, 16.5% of TB incidence) and the relative impact of TB control measures targeting the hotspot vs. the general community. If each case of active TB in the hotspot caused 0.5 secondary transmissions in the general community for each within-hotspot transmission, the 6.0% of people living in the hotspot accounted for 35.3% of city-wide TB transmission. Reducing the TB transmission rate (i.e., number of secondary infections per infectious case) in the hotspot to that in the general community reduced city-wide TB incidence by 9.8% in year 5, and 29.7% in year 50-an effect similar to halving time to diagnosis for the remaining 94% of the community. The importance of the hotspot to city-wide TB control depended strongly on the extent of TB transmission from the hotspot to the general community. High-incidence hotspots may play an important role in propagating TB epidemics. Achieving TB control targets in a hotspot containing 6% of a city's population can have similar impact on city-wide TB incidence as achieving the same targets throughout the remaining community.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.