Evidence map›Paper›PMID 22589370›Full record

SynthesisSchizophrenia bulletin2013

At risk for schizophrenic or affective psychoses? A meta-analysis of DSM/ICD diagnostic outcomes in individuals at high clinical risk.

Paolo Fusar-Poli, Andreas Bechdolf, Matthew John Taylor, Ilaria Bonoldi, William T Carpenter, Alison Ruth Yung, Philip McGuire

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Schizophrenia bulletin, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 85 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
85citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

85 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Trial
  6. Trial
  7. Clinical high-risk vs. population-level prevention of mental disorders: a false dichotomy.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2026
    Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Real-world comprehensive care of people living with schizophrenia: recommendations across different settings and clinical stages.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2026
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Subjective cognitive complaint in at-risk mental states.Schizophrenia research. Cognition · 2026
    Article
  14. Transforming Growth Factor-β Serum Levels Associated with Social Function in Subjects at Ultra-high Risk for Psychosis: A Multicenter Study.Clinical psychopharmacology and neuroscience : the official scientific journal of the Korean College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2025
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
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  19. Article
  20. Article

25 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Paolo Fusar-PoliDepartment of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London and OASIS team, South London and the Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK. p.fusar@libero.it
Andreas Bechdolf
Matthew John Taylor
Ilaria Bonoldi
William T Carpenter
Alison Ruth Yung
Philip McGuire

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe clinical high-risk state for psychosis (HRP) is associated with an enhanced probability of developing a psychotic episode over a relatively short period of time. However, the extent to which different diagnostic types of illness develop remains unclear.

methodsA systematic review was performed to identify studies of HRP participants reporting International Classfication of Diseases/Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders diagnostic outcomes at follow-up. Demographic, clinical, and methodological variables were extracted from each publication or obtained directly from its authors. A meta-analysis was performed of transition to schizophrenic (SP) or affective psychoses (AP) and to specific diagnostic categories. Statistical heterogeneity and small study bias were assessed, and meta-regressions were performed.

resultsTwenty-three studies were retrieved, including a total of 2182 HRP participants, 560 (26%) of them developed a frank psychotic disorder over the follow-up time (mean = 2.35 y). Among HRP participants who developed psychosis, 73% were diagnosed with SP and only 11% with AP (Risk Ratio, RR = 5.43, 95% CI from 3.35 to 8.83). The specific transition risk to ICD/DSM schizophrenia was of 15.7% (over 2.35y). Heterogeneity was statistically significant and moderate in magnitude. Use of basic symptoms criteria in the baseline clinical assessment was associated with a further increase in the proportion progressing to SP vs AP (RR = 17.1). There was no evidence of publication bias and the sensitivity analysis confirmed robustness of the above results.

conclusionsThe HRP state is heterogeneous in term of longitudinal diagnoses; however, the current HRP diagnostic criteria appear strongly biased toward an identification of early phases of SP rather than AP.

Indexed as

Prodromal SymptomsAffective Disorders, PsychoticBipolar DisorderDiagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental DisordersDisease ProgressionFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansMajor Depressive DisorderMalePsychotic DisordersRisk FactorsSchizophreniaaffective psychosisARMSbipolarBShigh riskprodromalpsychosisschizophreniaSIPS

Identifiers

PMID22589370
PMCPMC3686446

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.