SynthesisCMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne2012
The prognosis of acute and persistent low-back pain: a meta-analysis.
Synthesis in CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 3 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 239 papers, 27 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Efficacy of a Culturally Adapted Cognitive Behavioral Based Physical Therapy Intervention for Latinos With Chronic Spine Pain
Efficacy of Specific Skilled Motor Versus General Exercise Training on Peripheral Muscle and Central Brain Alterations in Patients with Recurrent Low Back Pain
Pain Reprocessing Therapy for Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial
Who cites it
239 citing papers in PubMed, 27 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 636 citations in OpenAlex.
- Non-pharmacological and non-surgical treatments for low back pain in adults: an overview of Cochrane reviews.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2025Pooled it
- Impact of education in patients undergoing physiotherapy for lower back pain: a level I systematic review and meta-analysis.European journal of trauma and emergency surgery : official publication of the European Trauma Society · 2025Pooled it
- The impact of contextual effects in exercise therapy for low back pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2024Pooled it
- Management of low back pain and lumbosacral radicular syndrome: the Guideline of the Royal Dutch Society for Physical Therapy (KNGF).European journal of physical and rehabilitation medicine · 2024Guideline
- The clinical course of acute, subacute and persistent low back pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2024Pooled it
- Carryover Effects of Pain Neuroscience Education on Patients with Chronic Lower Back Pain: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2023Pooled it
- The McKenzie method for (sub)acute non-specific low back pain.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2023Pooled it
- Comparative effectiveness and safety of analgesic medicines for adults with acute non-specific low back pain: systematic review and network meta-analysis.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2023Pooled it
- Exercise intervention for patients with chronic low back pain: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- Yoga for chronic non-specific low back pain.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Systemic corticosteroids for radicular and non-radicular low back pain.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- The Association between Early Opioids Prescribing and the Length of Disability in Acute Lower Back Pain: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Effectiveness of treatments for acute and subacute mechanical non-specific low back pain: a systematic review with network meta-analysis.British journal of sports medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Psychometric properties of chronic low back pain diagnostic classification systems: a systematic review.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2021Pooled it
- Isokinetic Trunk Strength in Acute Low Back Pain Patients Compared to Healthy Subjects: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for acute low back pain.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Pooled it
- Reduction mammoplasty and back pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2020Pooled it
- Individual recovery expectations and prognosis of outcomes in non-specific low back pain: prognostic factor review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2019Pooled it
- Movement Control Impairment and Low Back Pain: State of the Art of Diagnostic Framing.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2019Pooled it
- Pain and disability after first-time spinal fusion for lumbar degenerative disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2019Pooled it
179 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAlthough low-back pain is a highly prevalent condition, its clinical course remains uncertain. Our main objective was to systematically review the literature on the clinical course of pain and disability in patients with acute and persistent low-back pain. Our secondary objective was to investigate whether pain and disability have similar courses.
methodsWe performed a meta-analysis of inception cohort studies. We identified eligible studies by searching MEDLINE, Embase and CINAHL. We included prospective studies that enrolled an episode-inception cohort of patients with acute or persistent low-back pain and that measured pain, disability or recovery. Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed methodologic quality. We used mixed models to determine pooled estimates of pain and disability over time.
resultsData from 33 discrete cohorts (11 166 participants) were included in the review. The variance-weighted mean pain score (out of a maximum score of 100) was 52 (95% CI 48-57) at baseline, 23 (95% CI 21-25) at 6 weeks, 12 (95% CI 9-15) at 26 weeks and 6 (95% CI 3-10) at 52 weeks after the onset of pain for cohorts with acute pain. Among cohorts with persistent pain, the variance-weighted mean pain score (out of 100) was 51 (95% CI 44-59) at baseline, 33 (95% CI 29-38) at 6 weeks, 26 (95% CI 20-33) at 26 weeks and 23 (95% CI 16-30) at 52 weeks after the onset of pain. The course of disability outcomes was similar to the time course of pain outcomes in the acute pain cohorts, but the pain outcomes were slightly worse than disability outcomes in the persistent pain cohorts.
interpretationPatients who presented with acute or persistent low-back pain improved markedly in the first six weeks. After that time improvement slowed. Low to moderate levels of pain and disability were still present at one year, especially in the cohorts with persistent pain.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.