ArticleCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2012
Modeling of the growth kinetics of occult breast tumors: role in interpretation of studies of prevention and menopausal hormone therapy.
Article in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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16 citing papers in PubMed, 51 citations in OpenAlex.
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- A concept for a new approach to combined oral contraception from adolescence to perimenopause: Continuous use of the oral GnRH antagonist Relugolix and the fetal estrogen Estetrol.Acta obstetricia et gynecologica Scandinavica · 2026Article
- Premature ovarian insufficiency and the risk of breast cancer.Human reproduction open · 2025Article
- Progesterone from ovulatory menstrual cycles is an important cause of breast cancer.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2023Review
- Identification of Candidate Genes in Breast Cancer Induced by Estrogen Plus Progestogens Using Bioinformatic Analysis.International journal of molecular sciences · 2022Article
- The Controversial History of Hormone Replacement Therapy.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2019Review
- Menopausal hormone therapy and breast cancer: what is the evidence from randomized trials?Climacteric : the journal of the International Menopause Society · 2018Review
- Effect of a tissue selective estrogen complex on breast cancer: Role of unique properties of conjugated equine estrogen.International journal of cancer · 2018Article
- Article
- Aromatase expression in atypical ductal hyperplasia in women.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2017Article
- The Melanoma MAICare Framework: A Microsimulation Model for the Assessment of Individualized Cancer Care.Cancer informatics · 2016Article
- Breast-related effects of selective estrogen receptor modulators and tissue-selective estrogen complexes.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2014Review
- Understanding the premalignant potential of atypical hyperplasia through its natural history: a longitudinal cohort study.Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2014Article
- Occult breast tumor reservoir: biological properties and clinical significance.Hormones & cancer · 2013Article
- Progesterone-inducible cytokeratin 5-positive cells in luminal breast cancer exhibit progenitor properties.Hormones & cancer · 2013Article
- Effects of the conjugated equine estrogen/bazedoxifene tissue-selective estrogen complex (TSEC) on mammary gland and breast cancer in mice.Endocrinology · 2012Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAutopsy studies report a reservoir of small, occult, undiagnosed breast cancers in up to 15.6% of women dying from unrelated causes. The effective doubling times (EDT) of these occult neoplasms range from 70 to 350 days and mammographic detection threshold diameters from 0.88 to 1.66 cm. Modeling of the biologic behavior of these occult tumors facilitates interpretation of tamoxifen breast cancer prevention and menopausal hormone therapy studies.
methodsWe used iterative and mathematical techniques to develop a model of occult tumor growth (OTG) whose parameters included prevalence, EDT, and detection threshold. The model was validated by comparing predicted with observed incidence of breast cancer in several populations.
resultsIterative analysis identified a 200-day EDT, 7% prevalence and 1.16 cm detection threshold as optimal parameters for an OTG model as judged by comparison with Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) population incidence rates in the United States. We validated the model by comparing predicted incidence rates with those observed in five separate population databases, in three long-term contralateral breast cancer detection studies, and with data from a computer-simulated tumor growth (CSTG) model. Our model strongly suggests that breast cancer prevention with anti-estrogens or aromatase inhibitors represents early treatment not prevention. In addition, menopausal hormone therapy does not primarily induce de novo tumors but promotes the growth of occult lesions.
conclusionsOur OGTG model suggests that occult, undiagnosed tumors are prevalent, grow slowly, and are the biologic targets of anti-estrogen therapy for prevention and hormone therapy for menopausal women.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.