ArticleJournal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology2012
Potential usefulness of single nucleotide polymorphisms to identify persons at high cancer risk: an evaluation of seven common cancers.
Article in Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
- Polygenic risk scores: the future of cancer risk prediction, screening, and precision prevention.Medical review (2021) · 2021Review
- Robustness of risk-based allocation of resources for disease prevention.Statistical methods in medical research · 2020Article
- The Impact of a Comprehensive Risk Prediction Model for Colorectal Cancer on a Population Screening Program.JNCI cancer spectrum · 2020Article
- Evaluating the predictive value of genetic risk score in colorectal cancer among Chinese Han population.Journal of human genetics · 2020Article
- Gene Combination of CD44 rs187116, CD133 rs2240688, NF-κB1 rs28362491 and GSTM1 Deletion as a Potential Biomarker in Risk Prediction of Breast Cancer in Lower Northern Thailand.Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP · 2019Article
- Breast Cancer Risk Model Requirements for Counseling, Prevention, and Screening.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2018Article
- Genomic and Bioinformatics Approaches for Analysis of Genes Associated With Cancer Risks Following Exposure to Tobacco Smoking.Frontiers in public health · 2018Review
- Natural variation in a single amino acid substitution underlies physiological responses to topoisomerase II poisons.PLoS genetics · 2017Article
- What Does "Precision Medicine" Have to Say About Prevention?Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2017Article
- An application of competitive reporter monitored amplification (CMA) for rapid detection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs).PloS one · 2017Article
- Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States-Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci.American journal of epidemiology · 2016Article
- Familial prostate cancer.Seminars in oncology · 2016Article
- Developing and evaluating polygenic risk prediction models for stratified disease prevention.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2016Review
- Review
- Incorporation of detailed family history from the Swedish Family Cancer Database into the PCPT risk calculator.The Journal of urology · 2015Article
- The use of the Gail model, body mass index and SNPs to predict breast cancer among women with abnormal (BI-RADS 4) mammograms.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2015Article
- Interest in genomic SNP testing for prostate cancer risk: a pilot survey.Hereditary cancer in clinical practice · 2015Article
- Cumulative risk impact of five genetic variants associated with papillary thyroid carcinoma.Thyroid : official journal of the American Thyroid Association · 2013Article
- Bladder cancer: Towards risk stratification in bladder cancer.Nature reviews. Urology · 2013Article
- Projecting the performance of risk prediction based on polygenic analyses of genome-wide association studies.Nature genetics · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
purposeTo estimate the likely number and predictive strength of cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are yet to be discovered for seven common cancers.
methodsFrom the statistical power of published genome-wide association studies, we estimated the number of undetected susceptibility loci and the distribution of effect sizes for all cancers. Assuming a log-normal model for risks and multiplicative relative risks for SNPs, family history (FH), and known risk factors, we estimated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the proportion of patients with risks above risk thresholds for screening. From additional prevalence data, we estimated the positive predictive value and the ratio of non-patient cases to patient cases (false-positive ratio) for various risk thresholds.
resultsAge-specific discriminatory accuracy (AUC) for models including FH and foreseeable SNPs ranged from 0.575 for ovarian cancer to 0.694 for prostate cancer. The proportions of patients in the highest decile of population risk ranged from 16.2% for ovarian cancer to 29.4% for prostate cancer. The corresponding false-positive ratios were 241 for colorectal cancer, 610 for ovarian cancer, and 138 or 280 for breast cancer in women age 50 to 54 or 40 to 44 years, respectively.
conclusionForeseeable common SNP discoveries may not permit identification of small subsets of patients that contain most cancers. Usefulness of screening could be diminished by many false positives. Additional strong risk factors are needed to improve risk discrimination.
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