ArticleBMC biology2012
Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus.
Article in BMC biology, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 61 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
61 citing papers in PubMed.
- Genetic Variability and Evolutionary Dynamics of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Italy Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Leveraging synthetic and genetic data to improve epidemic forecasting.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Epistasis facilitates the long-term antigenic evolution of the influenza B virus hemagglutinin.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- A time-delayed epidemic model for control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI H5Nx) with vaccination, compliance, and non-pharmaceutical interventions.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Frequency dynamics predict viral fitness, antigenic relationships and epidemic growth.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Inference of Pairwise Interactions from Strain Frequency Data Across Settings and Context-Dependent Mutual Invasibilities.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- How immunity shapes the long-term dynamics of influenza H3N2.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.eLife · 2024Article
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- The genomic evolutionary dynamics and global circulation patterns of respiratory syncytial virus.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Evolutionary stability of antigenically escaping viruses.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Long-range linkage effects in adapting sexual populations.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Evolutionary implications of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination for the future design of vaccination strategies.Communications medicine · 2023Review
- MutaGAN: A sequence-to-sequence GAN framework to predict mutations of evolving protein populations.Virus evolution · 2023Article
- Affinity maturation for an optimal balance between long-term immune coverage and short-term resource constraints.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Antigenic escape selects for the evolution of higher pathogen transmission and virulence.Nature ecology & evolution · 2022Article
- Antigenic waves of virus-immune coevolution.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Review
1 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSince its emergence in 1968, influenza A (H3N2) has evolved extensively in genotype and antigenic phenotype. However, despite strong pressure to evolve away from human immunity and to diversify in antigenic phenotype, H3N2 influenza shows paradoxically limited genetic and antigenic diversity present at any one time. Here, we propose a simple model of antigenic evolution in the influenza virus that accounts for this apparent discrepancy.
resultsIn this model, antigenic phenotype is represented by a N-dimensional vector, and virus mutations perturb phenotype within this continuous Euclidean space. We implement this model in a large-scale individual-based simulation, and in doing so, we find a remarkable correspondence between model behavior and observed influenza dynamics. This model displays rapid evolution but low standing diversity and simultaneously accounts for the epidemiological, genetic, antigenic, and geographical patterns displayed by the virus. We find that evolution away from existing human immunity results in rapid population turnover in the influenza virus and that this population turnover occurs primarily along a single antigenic axis.
conclusionsSelective dynamics induce a canalized evolutionary trajectory, in which the evolutionary fate of the influenza population is surprisingly repeatable. In the model, the influenza population shows a 1- to 2-year timescale of repeatability, suggesting a window in which evolutionary dynamics could be, in theory, predictable.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.