Evidence map›Paper›PMID 22541275›Full record

SynthesisLancet (London, England)2012

Carotid intima-media thickness progression to predict cardiovascular events in the general population (the PROG-IMT collaborative project): a meta-analysis of individual participant data.

Matthias W Lorenz, Joseph F Polak, Maryam Kavousi, Ellisiv B Mathiesen, Henry Völzke, Tomi-Pekka Tuomainen, Dirk Sander, Matthieu Plichart, Alberico L Catapano, Christine M Robertson and 11 more

Erratum issued 2 registry-linked trialsOpen access · greenAbstract readMeta-Analysis
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Lancet (London, England), 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 257 papers, 14 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
257citing papers in PubMed, 14 pooled it
33.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05123287 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2021, after this paper: background citation

A Perspective, Self-control Study on the Progression of Carotid Plaques in Anti-PD-1 mAb Treated Tumor Patients by Artery Ultrasound Follow-up

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorSecond Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University, School of MedicineRan2021 to 2022Enrolled50ConditionsPlaque, Atherosclerotic, Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors, Programmed Cell Death Protein 1 Inhibitor, Carotid Artery PlaqueArmsPD-1 immune checkpoint blockades
NCT05549336 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2022, after this paper: background citation

Single-center, Prospective Cohort Study of PD-1inhibitors on Clinical Outcomes of Carotid Plaques in Tumor Patients

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorSecond Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University, School of MedicineRan2022 to 2023Enrolled100ConditionsCarotid Artery Plaque, Pd-1 InhibitorsArmsPD-1 inhibitor
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

257 citing papers in PubMed, 14 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 587 citations in OpenAlex.

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  9. The Japanese Society of Hypertension Guidelines for the Management of Hypertension (JSH 2019).Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2019
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197 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

21 authors at 16 institutions in 10 countries.

Matthias W LorenzDepartment of Neurology, University Hospital, J W Goethe-University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany. matthias.lorenz@em.uni-frankfurt.de
Joseph F Polak
Maryam Kavousi
Ellisiv B Mathiesen
Henry Völzke
Tomi-Pekka Tuomainen
Dirk Sander
Matthieu Plichart
Alberico L Catapano
Christine M Robertson
Stefan Kiechl
Tatjana Rundek
Moïse Desvarieux
Lars Lind
Caroline Schmid
Pronabesh DasMahapatra
Lu Gao
Kathrin Ziegelbauer
Michiel L Bots
Simon G Thompson
PROG-IMT Study Group
Erasmus MC · NLMRC Biostatistics Unit · GBColumbia University · USGoethe University Frankfurt · DEInnsbruck Medical University · ATTechnical University of Munich · DETulane University · USUiT The Arctic University of Norway · NOUniversitätsmedizin Greifswald · DEUniversité Paris Cité · FRUniversity of Eastern Finland · FIUniversity of Edinburgh · GBUniversity of Gothenburg · SEUniversity of Miami · USUniversity of Milan · ITUppsala University · SE

Funding

ORAL INFECTIONS, CAROTID ATHEROSCLEROSIS AND STROKER01DE013094 · NIDCR · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI DESVARIEUX, MOISE · 2000 to 2016
$14.4M
Stroke Incidence and Risk Factors in a Tri-Ethnic RegionR37NS029993 · NINDS · UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI ELKIND, MITCHELL S, SACCO, RALPH L. · 2008 to 2014
$12.1M
Exceptional Survival: Trajectories to Functional Aging (CHS All Stars)R01AG023629 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI NEWMAN, ANNE B. · 2004 to 2016
$9.5M
CHS Events Follow-up StudyR01HL080295 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI PSATY, BRUCE M · 2009 to 2014
$6.3M
CHS Events Follow-up StudyU01HL080295 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI PSATY, BRUCE M · 2005 to 2008
$4.6M
Predictors of Alheimers Disease in Mild Cognitive ImpairmentR01AG020098 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI LOPEZ, OSCAR L. · 2002 to 2011
$3.7M
Role of EIIIA fibronectin in pulmonary fibrosisR01HL085083 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI WHITE, ERIC S · 2007 to 2011
$1.9M
Hormonal trajectories in agingR01AG027058 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI CAPPOLA, ANNE R · 2006 to 2009
$1.2M
Predictors of Alzheimers Disease in Mild Cognitive ImpairmentR56AG020098 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI LOPEZ, OSCAR L. · 2007 to 2007
$482k
Exceptional Survival: Trajectories to Functional Aging (CHS All Stars)R56AG023629 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI NEWMAN, ANNE B. · 2010 to 2010
$300k
CHS-ULTRASOUND READINGN01HC045133 · HC · GEISINGER HEALTH SYSTEM · PI O'LEARY, DANIEL H. · 1994 to 2000
$155k
CORONARY HEART DISEASE &STROKE IN PEOPLE AGED 65 TO 84N01HC085079 · HC · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · 1988 to 2005
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British Heart Foundation RG/08/014/24067Medical Research Council MC_U105260792NCI NIH HHS N01 CN015103NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268200800007CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005GNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100006CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100007CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100007INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100008CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100008INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100009CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100009INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100010CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100011CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100011INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100012CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201200036CNHLBI NIH HHS HL080295NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC015103NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC035129NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC045133NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC055222NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC075150NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC085079NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC085080NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC085081NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC085082NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC085083NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC085084NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC085085NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC085086NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC-55222NHLBI NIH HHS N01-HC-75150NHLBI NIH HHS N01-HC-85079NHLBI NIH HHS N01-HC-85080NHLBI NIH HHS N01-HC-85081NHLBI NIH HHS N01-HC-85082NHLBI NIH HHS N01-HC-85083NHLBI NIH HHS N01-HC-85086NHLBI NIH HHS N01-HC-85239NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL080295NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL080295NIA NIH HHS AG-023629NIA NIH HHS AG-027058NIA NIH HHS AG-20098NIA NIH HHS R01 AG015928NIA NIH HHS R01 AG020098NIA NIH HHS R01 AG023629NIA NIH HHS R01 AG027058NIA NIH HHS R56 AG020098NIA NIH HHS R56 AG023629NIDCR NIH HHS R01 DE013094NIDCR NIH HHS R01 DE 13094NINDS NIH HHS R37 NS 029993NINDS NIH HHS R37 NS029993
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCarotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is related to the risk of cardiovascular events in the general population. An association between changes in cIMT and cardiovascular risk is frequently assumed but has rarely been reported. Our aim was to test this association.

methodsWe identified general population studies that assessed cIMT at least twice and followed up participants for myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. The study teams collaborated in an individual participant data meta-analysis. Excluding individuals with previous myocardial infarction or stroke, we assessed the association between cIMT progression and the risk of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death, or a combination of these) for each study with Cox regression. The log hazard ratios (HRs) per SD difference were pooled by random effects meta-analysis.

findingsOf 21 eligible studies, 16 with 36,984 participants were included. During a mean follow-up of 7·0 years, 1519 myocardial infarctions, 1339 strokes, and 2028 combined endpoints (myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death) occurred. Yearly cIMT progression was derived from two ultrasound visits 2-7 years (median 4 years) apart. For mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression, the overall HR of the combined endpoint was 0·97 (95% CI 0·94-1·00) when adjusted for age, sex, and mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness, and 0·98 (0·95-1·01) when also adjusted for vascular risk factors. Although we detected no associations with cIMT progression in sensitivity analyses, the mean cIMT of the two ultrasound scans was positively and robustly associated with cardiovascular risk (HR for the combined endpoint 1·16, 95% CI 1·10-1·22, adjusted for age, sex, mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression, and vascular risk factors). In three studies including 3439 participants who had four ultrasound scans, cIMT progression did not correlate between occassions (reproducibility correlations between r=-0·06 and r=-0·02).

interpretationThe association between cIMT progression assessed from two ultrasound scans and cardiovascular risk in the general population remains unproven. No conclusion can be derived for the use of cIMT progression as a surrogate in clinical trials.

fundingDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Indexed as

Carotid Intima-Media ThicknessCardiovascular DiseasesDisease ProgressionFollow-Up StudiesHumansMyocardial InfarctionPrognosisRisk AssessmentStroke

Identifiers

PMID22541275
PMCPMC3918517
OpenAlexW2099163669

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.