ArticlePloS one2012
The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.
Article in PloS one, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effects of ambient temperature on influenza-like illness: A multicity analysis in Shandong Province, China, 2014-2017.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Spatio-temporal patterns and associated factors of influenza-like illness outbreaks in Chinese mainland: a Bayesian modeling study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Investigating environmental determinants and spatiotemporal dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks in India through machine learning.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal pattern and suitable areas analysis of equine influenza in global scale (2005-2022).Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- Potential risk zones and climatic factors influencing the occurrence and persistence of avian influenza viruses in the environment of live bird markets in Bangladesh.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023Article
- Short-term impact of ambient temperature on the incidence of influenza in Wuhan, China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2022Article
- Equine Influenza.Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in medicine · 2022Review
- Influenza A and B outbreaks differed in their associations with climate conditions in Shenzhen, China.International journal of biometeorology · 2022Article
- Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Multi-Scale Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2021Review
- Observational
- Winter Is Coming: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective of the Environmental Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 and the Potential Seasonality of COVID-19.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Review
- COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: A time-series analysis.The Science of the total environment · 2020Article
- Could Environment Affect the Mutation of H1N1 Influenza Virus?International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- The complex associations of climate variability with seasonal influenza A and B virus transmission in subtropical Shanghai, China.The Science of the total environment · 2020Article
- Article
- Effects of Absolute Humidity, Relative Humidity, Temperature, and Wind Speed on Influenza Activity in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2019Article
- Low Prevalence of Enzootic Equine Influenza Virus among Horses in Mongolia.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2017Article
- Human Q fever incidence is associated to spatiotemporal environmental conditions.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2016Article
- Identification of climate factors related to human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China.Scientific reports · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20-25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour(-1) from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.
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