ArticleBulletin of the World Health Organization2012
Likely effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating influenza virus transmission in Mongolia.
Article in Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 35 citations in OpenAlex.
- Lessons from past pandemics: a systematic review of evidence-based, cost-effective interventions to suppress COVID-19.Systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2014Pooled it
- The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.PloS one · 2014Pooled it
- Article
- Place of distancing measures in containing epidemics: a scoping review.The Libyan journal of medicine · 2022Article
- A comparative study of public health and social measures of COVID-19 advocated in different countries.Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2021Review
- Article
- Reflecting on prediction strategies for epidemics: Preparedness and public health response.Annals of allergy, asthma & immunology : official publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, & Immunology · 2021Review
- Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions related to social distancing on respiratory viral infectious disease outcomes: A rapid evidence-based review and meta-analysis.SAGE open medicine · 2021Review
- Social distancing and testing as optimal strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Effectiveness of Innovation Media for Improving Physical Distancing Compliance during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Quasi-Experiment in Thailand.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 outbreak of unknown source in a Ghanaian senior high school.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Implementing social distancing policy measures in the battle against the coronavirus: protocol of a comparative study of Denmark and Sweden.Implementation science communications · 2020Article
- A theoretical single-parameter model for urbanisation to study infectious disease spread and interventions.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
- Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2014Article
- Influenza at the beginning of the 21st century.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2012Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo assess the likely benefit of the interventions under consideration for use in Mongolia during future influenza pandemics.
methodsA stochastic, compartmental patch model of susceptibility, exposure, infection and recovery was constructed to capture the key effects of several interventions--travel restrictions, school closure, generalized social distancing, quarantining of close contacts, treatment of cases with antivirals and prophylaxis of contacts--on the dynamics of influenza epidemics. The likely benefit and optimal timing and duration of each of these interventions were assessed using Latin-hypercube sampling techniques, averaging across many possible transmission and social mixing parameters.
findingsTimely interventions could substantially alter the time-course and reduce the severity of pandemic influenza in Mongolia. In a moderate pandemic scenario, early social distancing measures decreased the mean attack rate from around 10% to 7-8%. Similarly, in a severe pandemic scenario such measures cut the mean attack rate from approximately 23% to 21%. In both moderate and severe pandemic scenarios, a suite of non-pharmaceutical interventions proved as effective as the targeted use of antivirals. Targeted antiviral campaigns generally appeared more effective in severe pandemic scenarios than in moderate pandemic scenarios.
conclusionA mathematical model of pandemic influenza transmission in Mongolia indicated that, to be successful, interventions to prevent transmission must be triggered when the first cases are detected in border regions. If social distancing measures are introduced at this stage and implemented over several weeks, they may have a notable mitigating impact. In low-income regions such as Mongolia, social distancing may be more effective than the large-scale use of antivirals.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.