ArticleComputational and mathematical methods in medicine2012
Comparing statistical models to predict dengue fever notifications.
Article in Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- Comparative Performance of Mechanistic, Statistical, and Hybrid Models of Forecasting Dengue Fever Incidence in Somalia. A Retrospective Time Series Analysis.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Time series analysis of dengue incidence and its association with meteorological risk factors in Bangladesh.PloS one · 2025Article
- Downscaling epidemiological time series data for improving forecasting accuracy: An algorithmic approach.PloS one · 2023Article
- Article
- Forecasting the incidence of dengue in Bangladesh-Application of time series model.Health science reports · 2022Article
- The Effects of Meteorological Factors on Dengue Cases in Malaysia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Short-Term Prediction of COVID-19 Using Novel Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Error Trend Seasonal Model.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Article
- Multiplicative Holts Winter Model for Trend Analysis and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spread in India.SN computer science · 2021Article
- A comparative study on the prediction of the BP artificial neural network model and the ARIMA model in the incidence of AIDS.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2020Article
- Prediction of Daily Blood Sampling Room Visits Based on ARIMA and SES Model.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2020Article
- Forecasting COVID-19 in Pakistan.PloS one · 2020Article
- A dynamic neural network model for predicting risk of Zika in real time.BMC medicine · 2019Article
- Article
- Neighbourhood level real-time forecasting of dengue cases in tropical urban Singapore.BMC medicine · 2018Article
- Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2017Article
- Time series modelling to forecast prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies.BMC health services research · 2017Article
- Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico.Scientific reports · 2016Article
- Three-Month Real-Time Dengue Forecast Models: An Early Warning System for Outbreak Alerts and Policy Decision Support in Singapore.Environmental health perspectives · 2016Article
- Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction.BMC bioinformatics · 2016Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Dengue fever (DF) is a serious public health problem in many parts of the world, and, in the absence of a vaccine, disease surveillance and mosquito vector eradication are important in controlling the spread of the disease. DF is primarily transmitted by the female Aedes aegypti mosquito. We compared two statistical models that can be used in the surveillance and forecast of notifiable infectious diseases, namely, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the Knorr-Held two-component (K-H) model. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was used to compare models. We developed the models using used data on DF notifications in Singapore from January 2001 till December 2006 and then validated the models with data from January 2007 till June 2008. The K-H model resulted in a slightly lower MAPE value of 17.21 as compared to the ARIMA model. We conclude that the models' performances are similar, but we found that the K-H model was relatively more difficult to fit in terms of the specification of the prior parameters and the relatively longer time taken to run the models.
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