Using graded response model for the prediction of prostate cancer risk.

Disease risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have the potential to be used for disease risk prediction. An important feature of these risk-associated SNPs is their weak individual effect but stronger cumulative effect on disease risk. To date, a stable summary estimate of the joint effect of genetic variants on disease risk prediction is not available. In this study, we propose to use the graded response model (GRM), which is based on the item response theory, for estimating the individual risk that is associated with a set of SNPs. We compare the GRM with a recently proposed risk prediction model called cumulative relative risk (CRR). Thirty-three prostate cancer risk-associated SNPs were originally discovered in GWAS by December 2009. These SNPs were used to evaluate the performance of GRM and CRR for predicting prostate cancer risk in three GWAS populations, including populations from Sweden, Johns Hopkins Hospital, and the National Cancer Institute Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility study. Computational results show that the risk prediction estimates of GRM, compared to CRR, are less biased and more stable.