ArticleEmerging health threats journal2009
Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere.
Article in Emerging health threats journal, 2009. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Resurgence of large-scale influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks: Modeling the interplay of transmission, loss of immunity, and vaccination.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Outfitting the quest for spatial spread of infections: A review of mobility datasets for population health modelling.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Review
- Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Statistical inference using GLEaM model with spatial heterogeneity and correlation between regions.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Mitigation of epidemics in contact networks through optimal contact adaptation.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2013Article
- Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks.F1000prime reports · 2013Article
- Human mobility and the worldwide impact of intentional localized highly pathogenic virus release.Scientific reports · 2013Article
- Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm.BMC medicine · 2012Article
- Large-scale spatial population databases in infectious disease research.International journal of health geographics · 2012Review
- The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease.Population health metrics · 2011Article
- The GLEaMviz computational tool, a publicly available software to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios at the global scale.BMC infectious diseases · 2011Review
- Optimizing tactics for use of the U.S. antiviral strategic national stockpile for pandemic influenza.PloS one · 2011Article
- Towards a characterization of behavior-disease models.PloS one · 2011Article
- Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic.PLoS currents · 2009Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available early October. Several studies point to the possibility of an anticipated pandemic peak that could undermine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Here, we use a structured global epidemic and mobility metapopulation model to assess the effectiveness of massive vaccination campaigns for the Fall/Winter 2009. Mitigation effects are explored depending on the interplay between the predicted pandemic evolution and the expected delivery of vaccines. The model is calibrated using recent estimates on the transmissibility of the new A(H1N1) influenza. Results show that if additional intervention strategies were not used to delay the time of pandemic peak, vaccination may not be able to considerably reduce the cumulative number of cases, even when the mass vaccination campaign is started as early as mid-October. Prioritized vaccination would be crucial in slowing down the pandemic evolution and reducing its burden.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.