ArticleEpidemiology and infection2013
Effects of influenza antivirals on individual and population immunity over many epidemic waves.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Cost-Effectiveness of Baloxavir Marboxil Versus Oseltamivir or no Treatment for the Management of Influenza in the United States.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2024Article
- Emerging paradigms of viral diseases and paramount role of natural resources as antiviral agents.The Science of the total environment · 2021Review
- Health inequities in influenza transmission and surveillance.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Optimizing antiviral treatment for seasonal influenza in the USA: a mathematical modeling analysis.BMC medicine · 2021Article
- Dynamic Perspectives on the Search for a Universal Influenza Vaccine.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales.Ecology letters · 2017Article
- Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties.Physics of life reviews · 2016Review
- Assessing the use of antiviral treatment to control influenza.Epidemiology and infection · 2015Article
- Prior population immunity reduces the expected impact of CTL-inducing vaccines for pandemic influenza control.PloS one · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Antivirals are an important defence against novel strains of influenza. However, the impact of widespread drug usage on strain circulation across multiple epidemic waves - via their impact on host immunity - is unknown despite antivirals having the likelihood of extensive use during a pandemic. To explore how drug usage by individuals affects population strain dynamics, we embedded a two-strain model of within-host dynamics within an epidemic model. We found that when 40% of hosts took drugs early during the infectious period, transmission was reduced by 30% and average levels of immunity by 2·9-fold (comparable to antibody concentrations), relative to 14% and 1·5-fold reductions when drugs were taken late. The novel strain was more successful relative to the resident strain when drugs were not taken, and an intermediate level of drug coverage minimized incidence in subsequent waves. We discuss how drug regimens, coverage and R 0 could impact pandemic preparedness.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.