Evidence map›Paper›PMID 22437350›Full record

ArticleRadiation and environmental biophysics2012

Dose-responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors.

H Schöllnberger, J C Kaiser, P Jacob, L Walsh

Erratum issuedOpen access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Radiation and environmental biophysics, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
5.2field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 39 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Radiation and circulatory disease.Mutation research. Reviews in mutation research
    Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

H SchöllnbergerHelmholtz Zentrum München, Department of Radiation Sciences, Institute of Radiation Protection, Neuherberg, Germany. schoellnberger@helmholtz-muenchen.de
J C Kaiser
P Jacob
L Walsh
Helmholtz Zentrum München · DEFederal Office for Radiation Protection · DE

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The non-cancer mortality data for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular diseases from Report 13 on the atomic bomb survivors published by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation were analysed to investigate the dose-response for the influence of radiation on these detrimental health effects. Various parametric and categorical models (such as linear-no-threshold (LNT) and a number of threshold and step models) were analysed with a statistical selection protocol that rated the model description of the data. Instead of applying the usual approach of identifying one preferred model for each data set, a set of plausible models was applied, and a sub-set of non-nested models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. Subsequently, this sub-set of non-nested models was used to perform multi-model inference (MMI), an innovative method of mathematically combining different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose-response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. This procedure thereby produces more reliable risk estimates based on a more comprehensive appraisal of model uncertainties. For CVD, MMI yielded a weak dose-response (with a risk estimate of about one-third of the LNT model) below a step at 0.6 Gy and a stronger dose-response at higher doses. The calculated risk estimates are consistent with zero risk below this threshold-dose. For mortalities related to cardiovascular diseases, an LNT-type dose-response was found with risk estimates consistent with zero risk below 2.2 Gy based on 90% confidence intervals. The MMI approach described here resolves a dilemma in practical radiation protection when one is forced to select between models with profoundly different dose-responses for risk estimates.

Indexed as

Nuclear WeaponsBasal Ganglia Cerebrovascular DiseaseCardiovascular DiseasesComputer SimulationDose-Response Relationship, RadiationFemaleHumansLinear ModelsMaleNuclear WarfareRadiation InjuriesRisk AssessmentSurvivors

Identifiers

PMID22437350
PMCPMC3332375
OpenAlexW2114040605

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.