Physical state and viral load as predictive biomarkersfor persistence and progression of HPV16-positive cervical lesions: results from a population based long-term prospective cohort study.

Persistent infection with a high risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) has been established as the main cause of cervical cancer and high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3). Because most infections are transient, testing for hrHPV lacks specificity and has a low positive predictive value. It has been suggested that additional parameters like viral load and physical status of the viral genome could improve the effectiveness of HPV-based screening. We investigated the association between HPV16 viral load and physical state with viral persistence or risk of incident CIN3 or worse in a population-based prospective cohort study comprising 8656 women (20-29 years). All participants had two gynecological examinations two years apart and were followed through the nationwide Danish Pathology Data Bank (median follow-up: 12.9 yrs). Seventynine cervical swabs from women with a persistent HPV16 infection were available for analysis. For comparison we selected a random age-matched sample of transiently HPV16 infected women (N=91). Persistently infected women with incident CIN3 or cancer (CIN3+; N=31) were compared to women with normal cytology during follow up (non-progressors; N=39). Quantitative real-time PCR for HPV16E6, E2 and IFNb1 was done to determine the HPV16 viral load and the E2/E6 ratio was used as a surrogate marker for integration. Women with normal cytology who became persistently HPV16 infected had a significantly lower HPV16 load at baseline than women who cleared the infection (median 4.72 copies/cell versus median 20.0 copies/cell, respectively; p=0.0003). There was no difference in viral load at enrollment between women who progressed to CIN3+ and women who stayed cytologically normal (p=0.85). At the second examination viral load tended to be higher in women who progressed, but the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.39). The E2/E6 ratio was shown to be lower in the persistently infected group (p<0.0001) already at the first examination, but no difference between non-progressors and CIN3+ cases was observed at any of the two examinations (p=0.61 and 0.86). Lower viral load and integration of the viral genome are predictive for the persistence of HPV16 DNA, but not for the progression of a persistent HPV16 infection to CIN3+ in women with normal cytology.