Evidence map›Paper›PMID 22393215›Full record

SynthesisArchives of general psychiatry2012

Predicting psychosis: meta-analysis of transition outcomes in individuals at high clinical risk.

Paolo Fusar-Poli, Ilaria Bonoldi, Alison R Yung, Stefan Borgwardt, Matthew J Kempton, Lucia Valmaggia, Francesco Barale, Edgardo Caverzasi, Philip McGuire

2 registry-linked trialsAbstract readMeta-Analysis
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Archives of general psychiatry, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 613 papers, 17 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
613citing papers in PubMed, 17 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT03323437 phase4completednot on this mapstarted 2017, after this paper: background citation

Biomarkers of Conversion Risk and Treatment Response in Early-Stage Schizophrenia

TypeinterventionalSponsorWeill Medical College of Cornell UniversityRan2017 to 2023Enrolled26ConditionsSchizophrenia Spectrum and Other Psychotic DisordersArmsRisperidone
NCT03558529 completednot on this mapstarted 2015, after this paper: background citation

ExPRESS:2 (Experiences of Psychosis Relapse: Early Subjective Signs) Longitudinal Feasibility Study

TypeobservationalSponsorManchester Academic Health Science CentreRan2015 to 2018Enrolled27ConditionsSchizophrenia Relapse, Schizophrenia, Schizo Affective Disorder, Psychotic Disorders
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

613 citing papers in PubMed, 17 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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553 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Paolo Fusar-PoliDepartment of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom. p.fusar@libero.it
Ilaria Bonoldi
Alison R Yung
Stefan Borgwardt
Matthew J Kempton
Lucia Valmaggia
Francesco Barale
Edgardo Caverzasi
Philip McGuire

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

contextA substantial proportion of people at clinical high risk of psychosis will develop a psychotic disorder over time. However, the risk of transition to psychosis varies between centers, and some recent work suggests that the risk of transition may be declining.

objectiveTo quantitatively examine the literature to date reporting the transition risk to psychosis in subjects at clinical high risk. DATA SOURCES: The electronic databases were searched until January 2011. All studies reporting transition risks in patients at clinical high risk were retrieved. STUDY SELECTION: Twenty-seven studies met the inclusion criteria, comprising a total of 2502 patients. DATA EXTRACTION: Transition risks, as well as demographic, clinical, and methodologic variables, were extracted from each publication or obtained directly from its authors. DATA SYNTHESIS: There was a consistent transition risk, independent of the psychometric instruments used, of 18% after 6 months of follow-up, 22% after 1 year, 29% after 2 years, and 36% after 3 years. Significant moderators accounting for heterogeneity across studies and influencing the transition risks were the age of participants, publication year, treatments received, and diagnostic criteria used. There was no publication bias, and a sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the core findings.

conclusionsThe state of clinical high risk is associated with a very high risk of developing psychosis within the first 3 years of clinical presentation, and the risk progressively increases across this period. The transition risk varies with the age of the patient, the nature of the treatment provided, and the way the syndrome and transition to psychosis are defined.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAge FactorsDisease ProgressionHumansKaplan-Meier EstimatePsychiatric Status Rating ScalesPsychotic DisordersRisk FactorsYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID22393215

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.