ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2012
The effect of changes in condom usage and antiretroviral treatment coverage on human immunodeficiency virus incidence in South Africa: a model-based analysis.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010-2015).Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Pooled it
- Antiretroviral therapy blocks natural selection on protective and disease-susceptible HLA-B alleles in HIV-1 infection.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Future HIV epidemic trajectories in South Africa and projected long-term consequences of reductions in general population HIV testing: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Public health · 2024Article
- Sexually transmitted infections among HIV serodiscordant partners: A secondary analysis of HIV Prevention Trial Network 052.International journal of STD & AIDS · 2021Article
- Reductions in HIV incidence are likely to increase the importance of key population programmes for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- Estimating the contribution of key populations towards HIV transmission in South Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- The impact of condom use on the HIV epidemic.Gates open research · 2021Article
- Transactional sex and HIV infection among commercial farm workers in South Africa.Journal of public health in Africa · 2020Article
- Modelling the impact of screening for chlamydia and gonorrhoea in youth and other high-prevalence groups in a resource-limited setting.International journal of public health · 2020Article
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- Structural Design and Data Requirements for Simulation Modelling in HIV/AIDS: A Narrative Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2019Review
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- Article
- Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa.Southern African journal of HIV medicine · 2018Article
- Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2017Article
- Changing Dynamics of HIV Transmission in Côte d'Ivoire: Modeling Who Acquired and Transmitted Infections and Estimating the Impact of Past HIV Interventions (1976-2015).Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2017Article
- Accounting for nonsampling error in estimates of HIV epidemic trends from antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance.AIDS (London, England) · 2017Article
- HIV epidemic drivers in South Africa: A model-based evaluation of factors accounting for inter-provincial differences in HIV prevalence and incidence trends.Southern African journal of HIV medicine · 2017Article
- HIV Infection and AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Status, Challenges and Opportunities.The open AIDS journal · 2016Article
- A Comparison of South African National HIV Incidence Estimates: A Critical Appraisal of Different Methods.PloS one · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
This study aims to assess trends in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence in South Africa, and to assess the extent to which prevention and treatment programmes have reduced HIV incidence. Two models of the South African HIV epidemic, the STI (sexually transmitted infection)-HIV Interaction model and the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic model, were adapted. Both models were fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data from antenatal clinic surveys and household surveys, using a Bayesian approach. Both models suggest that HIV incidence in 15-49 year olds declined significantly between the start of 2000 and the start of 2008: by 27 per cent (95% CI: 21-32%) in the STI-HIV model and by 31 per cent (95% CI: 23-39%) in the ASSA2003 model, when expressed as a percentage of incidence rates in 2000. By 2008, the percentage reduction in incidence owing to increased condom use was 37 per cent (95% CI: 34-41%) in the STI-HIV model and 23 per cent (95% CI: 14-34%) in the ASSA2003 model. Both models also estimated a small reduction in incidence owing to antiretroviral treatment by 2008. Increased condom use therefore appears to be the most significant factor explaining the recent South African HIV incidence decline.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.