ArticleTravel medicine and infectious disease2012
A model-based tool to predict the propagation of infectious disease via airports.
Article in Travel medicine and infectious disease, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Pooled it
- Complex network analysis techniques for the early detection of the outbreak of pandemics transmitted through air traffic.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Assessing the efficacy of health countermeasures on arrival time of infectious diseases.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane.Journal of air transport management · 2021Article
- On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level.Transport policy · 2021Article
- Article
- Identification of critical airports for controlling global infectious disease outbreaks: Stress-tests focusing in Europe.Journal of air transport management · 2020Article
- The Predictive Capacity of Air Travel Patterns During the Global Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Risk, Uncertainty and Randomness.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Systems Biology-Based Platforms to Accelerate Research of Emerging Infectious Diseases.Yonsei medical journal · 2018Review
- FLIRT-ing with Zika: A Web Application to Predict the Movement of Infected Travelers Validated Against the Current Zika Virus Epidemic.PLoS currents · 2016Article
- Article
- The role of ethnicity and travel on Hepatitis A vaccination coverage and disease incidence in Arizona at the United States-Mexico Border.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2014Article
- Detection of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks by CUSUM-based overcrowd-severe-respiratory-disease-index model.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2013Article
- Web-based GIS: the vector-borne disease airline importation risk (VBD-AIR) tool.International journal of health geographics · 2012Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Epidemics of novel or re-emerging infectious diseases have quickly spread globally via air travel, as highlighted by pandemic H1N1 influenza in 2009 (pH1N1). Federal, state, and local public health responders must be able to plan for and respond to these events at aviation points of entry. The emergence of a novel influenza virus and its spread to the United States were simulated for February 2009 from 55 international metropolitan areas using three basic reproduction numbers (R(0)): 1.53, 1.70, and 1.90. Empirical data from the pH1N1 virus were used to validate our SEIR model. Time to entry to the U.S. during the early stages of a prototypical novel communicable disease was predicted based on the aviation network patterns and the epidemiology of the disease. For example, approximately 96% of origins (R(0) of 1.53) propagated a disease into the U.S. in under 75 days, 90% of these origins propagated a disease in under 50 days. An R(0) of 1.53 reproduced the pH1NI observations. The ability to anticipate the rate and location of disease introduction into the U.S. provides greater opportunity to plan responses based on the scenario as it is unfolding. This simulation tool can aid public health officials to assess risk and leverage resources efficiently.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.