ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2012
A periodically-forced mathematical model for the seasonal dynamics of malaria in mosquitoes.
Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Agent-based models of malaria transmission: a systematic review.Malaria journal · 2018Pooled it
- Seasonality of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: a systematic review.Malaria journal · 2015Pooled it
- The time-course of protection of the RTS,S vaccine against malaria infections and clinical disease.Malaria journal · 2015Trial
- Exploring heterogeneity in mosquito exposure and attraction and its implications for malaria transmission.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Correcting Structural Bias in Dynamical Models of Infectious Disease Using a Bayesian State-Space Framework.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Comparative malaria impact of chlorfenapyr-α-cypermethrin netsCurrent research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases · 2026Article
- Cascades of effectiveness of next-generation insecticide-treated nets against malaria, from entomological trials to real-life conditions.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Mathematical modelling and analysis of the adaptive dynamics in mosquito populations: uniform persistence of malaria infection.Journal of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Performance characteristics and potential public health impact of improved pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccines targeting childhood burden.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- A model-informed target product profile for population modification gene drives for malaria control.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Malaria treatment for prevention: a modelling study of the impact of routine case management on malaria prevalence and burden.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Host movement, transmission hot spots, and vector-borne disease dynamics on spatial networks.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Article
- Sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Mainland Tanzania: simulation of the impact of strata-specific intervention combinations using modelling.Malaria journal · 2022Article
- Model-informed target product profiles of long-acting-injectables for use as seasonal malaria prevention.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Emulator-based Bayesian optimization for efficient multi-objective calibration of an individual-based model of malaria.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Evaluation of different deployment strategies for larviciding to control malaria: a simulation study.Malaria journal · 2021Article
- Overview of the modeling of complex biological systems and its role in neurosurgery.Surgical neurology international · 2021Article
- Simulating the council-specific impact of anti-malaria interventions: A tool to support malaria strategic planning in Tanzania.PloS one · 2020Article
- Cost-effectiveness and public health impact of RTS,S/AS01Wellcome open research · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We describe and analyze a periodically-forced difference equation model for malaria in mosquitoes that captures the effects of seasonality and allows the mosquitoes to feed on a heterogeneous population of hosts. We numerically show the existence of a unique globally asymptotically stable periodic orbit and calculate periodic orbits of field-measurable quantities that measure malaria transmission. We integrate this model with an individual-based stochastic simulation model for malaria in humans to compare the effects of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in reducing malaria transmission, prevalence, and incidence. We show that ITNs are more effective than IRS in reducing transmission and prevalence though IRS would achieve its maximal effects within 2 years while ITNs would need two mass distribution campaigns over several years to do so. Furthermore, the combination of both interventions is more effective than either intervention alone. However, although these interventions reduce transmission and prevalence, they can lead to increased clinical malaria; and all three malaria indicators return to preintervention levels within 3 years after the interventions are withdrawn.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.