ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2011
Possible net harms of breast cancer screening: updated modelling of Forrest report.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Guideline
- Quality-adjusted life years in the presence and absence of organized mammographic screening using data from BreastScreen Norway.International journal of cancer · 2026Article
- No association between breast pain and breast cancer: a prospective cohort study of 10 830 symptomatic women presenting to a breast cancer diagnostic clinic.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2022Article
- Cost-effectiveness of risk-based breast cancer screening programme, China.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2018Article
- Saliva samples as a source of DNA for high throughput genotyping: an acceptable and sufficient means in improvement of risk estimation throughout mammographic diagnostics.European journal of medical research · 2018Article
- Ultrasound positive predictive values by BI-RADS categories 3-5 for solid masses: An independent reader study.European radiology · 2017Article
- Optoacoustic response of gold nanorods in soft phantoms using high-power diode laser assemblies at 870 and 905 nm.Biomedical optics express · 2017Article
- Economic analysis of the breast cancer screening program used by the UK NHS: should the program be maintained?Breast cancer (Dove Medical Press) · 2017Review
- Mammography screening is harmful and should be abandoned.Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine · 2015Article
- Explaining variations in breast cancer screening across European countries.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2014Article
- Quantification of population benefit in evaluation of biomarkers: practical implications for disease detection and prevention.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2014Article
- The benefits and harms of breast cancer screening: an independent review.British journal of cancer · 2013Review
- Breast screening review--a radiologist's perspective.The British journal of radiology · 2012Review
- Article
- Overview in Breast Cancer Screening in Lebanon.Cancer control : journal of the Moffitt Cancer CenterReview
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo assess the claim in a Cochrane review that mammographic breast cancer screening could be doing more harm than good by updating the analysis in the Forrest report, which led to screening in the United Kingdom.
designDevelopment of a life table model, which replicated Forrest's results before updating and extending them with data from relevant systematic reviews, trials, and other models based on purposive literature searches.
participantsWomen aged 50 and over invited for breast cancer screening.
main outcome measuresQuality adjusted life years (QALYs), combining life years gained from screening with losses of quality of life from false positive diagnoses and surgery.
resultsInclusion of the effects of harms reduced the updated estimate of net cumulative QALYs gained after 20 years from 3301 to 1536 or by more than half. The best estimates from the Cochrane review generated negative QALYs for the first seven years of screening, 70 QALYs after 10 years, and 834 QALYs after 20 years. Sensitivity analysis showed these results were robust to a range of assumptions, particularly up to 10 years. It also indicated the importance of the level and duration of harms from surgery.
conclusionsThis analysis supports the claim that the introduction of breast cancer screening might have caused net harm for up to 10 years after the start of screening.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.