ArticlePharmacoEconomics2012
Incorporating calibrated model parameters into sensitivity analyses: deterministic and probabilistic approaches.
Article in PharmacoEconomics, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks: A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community.PharmacoEconomics · 2016Pooled it
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models.Frontiers in physiology · 2022Article
- Development and Calibration of a Dynamic HIV Transmission Model for 6 US Cities.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2020Article
- Evaluating Parameter Uncertainty in a Simulation Model of Cancer Using Emulators.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2019Article
- Nonidentifiability in Model Calibration and Implications for Medical Decision Making.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018Article
- An Overview of R in Health Decision Sciences.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2017Review
- Some Health States Are Better Than Others: Using Health State Rank Order to Improve Probabilistic Analyses.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2016Article
- Using Active Learning for Speeding up Calibration in Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2016Article
- Calibration of complex models through Bayesian evidence synthesis: a demonstration and tutorial.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2015Article
- Identifying best-fitting inputs in health-economic model calibration: a Pareto frontier approach.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2015Article
- Modeling and calibration for exposure to time-varying, modifiable risk factors: the example of smoking behavior in India.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveThe aim of this study was to examine how calibration uncertainty affects the overall uncertainty of a mathematical model and to evaluate potential drivers of calibration uncertainty.
methodsA lifetime Markov model of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical disease was developed to assess the cost effectiveness of a hypothetical HPV vaccine. Published data on cervical cancer incidence and mortality and prevalence of pre-cursor lesions were used as endpoints to calibrate the age- and HPV-type-specific transition probabilities between health states using the Nelder-Mead simplex method of calibration. A conventional probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was performed to assess uncertainty in vaccine efficacy, cost and utility estimates. To quantify the uncertainty around calibrated transition probabilities, a second PSA (calibration PSA) was performed using 25 distinct combinations of objective functions and starting simplexes.
resultsThe initial calibration produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $US 4300 per QALY for vaccination compared with no vaccination, and the conventional PSA gave a 95% credible interval of dominant to $US 9800 around this estimate (2005 values). The 95% credible interval for the ICERs in the calibration PSA ranged from $US 1000 to $US 37,700.
conclusionsCompared with a conventional PSA, the calibration PSA results reveal a greater level of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness results. Sensitivity analyses around model calibration should be performed to account for uncertainty arising from the calibration process.
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