ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2012
Predictive ecology: systems approaches.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 162 citations in OpenAlex.
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- A roadmap towards predicting species interaction networks (across space and time).Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Review
- Dispersal in heterogeneous environments drives population dynamics and control of tsetse flies.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Ecological forecasts reveal limitations of common model selection methods: predicting changes in beaver colony densities.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2021Article
- Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse.Ecology letters · 2020Article
- Predicting population change from models based on habitat availability and utilization.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2019Article
- Harnessing Deep Learning in Ecology: An Example Predicting Bark Beetle Outbreaks.Frontiers in plant science · 2019Article
- Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Article
- Predicting evolution in response to climate change: the example of sprouting probability in three dormancy-prone orchid species.Royal Society open science · 2017Article
- A comparison between data requirements and availability for calibrating predictive ecological models for lowland UK woodlands: learning new tricks from old trees.Ecology and evolution · 2016Article
- The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants.Ecology letters · 2015Article
- Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model.PLoS biology · 2014Article
- Article
- Predictive systems ecology.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2013Review
- Towards a systems approach for understanding honeybee decline: a stocktaking and synthesis of existing models.The Journal of applied ecology · 2013Article
- Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.PloS one · 2013Article
- Making predictive ecology more relevant to policy makers and practitioners.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2012Article
- Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2012Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The world is experiencing significant, largely anthropogenically induced, environmental change. This will impact on the biological world and we need to be able to forecast its effects. In order to produce such forecasts, ecology needs to become more predictive--to develop the ability to understand how ecological systems will behave in future, changed, conditions. Further development of process-based models is required to allow such predictions to be made. Critical to the development of such models will be achieving a balance between the brute-force approach that naively attempts to include everything, and over simplification that throws out important heterogeneities at various levels. Central to this will be the recognition that individuals are the elementary particles of all ecological systems. As such it will be necessary to understand the effect of evolution on ecological systems, particularly when exposed to environmental change. However, insights from evolutionary biology will help the development of models even when data may be sparse. Process-based models are more common, and are used for forecasting, in other disciplines, e.g. climatology and molecular systems biology. Tools and techniques developed in these endeavours can be appropriated into ecological modelling, but it will also be necessary to develop the science of ecoinformatics along with approaches specific to ecological problems. The impetus for this effort should come from the demand coming from society to understand the effects of environmental change on the world and what might be performed to mitigate or adapt to them.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.