ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2011
Overdiagnosis from non-progressive cancer detected by screening mammography: stochastic simulation study with calibration to population based registry data.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 59 citations in OpenAlex.
- Quantifying and monitoring overdiagnosis in cancer screening: a systematic review of methods.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2015Pooled it
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Modeling the Impact of Multicancer Early Detection Tests: A Review of Natural History of Disease Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Review
- The natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ: development, validation, and estimated outcomes of the SimDCIS model.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Article
- Non-progressive breast carcinomas detected at mammography screening: a population study.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2023Article
- Overdiagnosis Due to Screening Mammography for Breast Cancer among Women Aged 40 Years and Over: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of personalized medicine · 2023Review
- A new perspective on breast cancer diagnostic guidelines to reduce overdiagnosis.Production and operations management · 2022Article
- Estimation of Breast Cancer Overdiagnosis in a U.S. Breast Screening Cohort.Annals of internal medicine · 2022Article
- Ductal Carcinoma in Situ: State-of-the-Art Review.Radiology · 2022Review
- Ductal Carcinoma In Situ Biology, Language, and Active Surveillance: A Survey of Breast Radiologists' Knowledge and Opinions.Journal of the American College of Radiology : JACR · 2020Article
- Modeling the natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ based on population data.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2020Article
- An exploration for quantification of overdiagnosis and its effect for breast cancer screening.Chinese journal of cancer research = Chung-kuo yen cheng yen chiu · 2020Article
- Estimating the frequency of indolent breast cancer in screening trials.Statistical methods in medical research · 2019Article
- Modeling Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS): An Overview of CISNET Model Approaches.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018Article
- Missteps in Current Estimates of Cancer Overdiagnosis.Academic radiology · 2017Review
- Overdiagnosis of breast cancer in population screening: does it make breast screening worthless?Cancer biology & medicine · 2017Article
- Preoperative breast magnetic resonance imaging and contralateral breast cancer occurrence among older women with ductal carcinoma in situ.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2016Article
- Recognizing the Limitations of Cancer Overdiagnosis Studies: A First Step Towards Overcoming Them.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2016Review
- Mammography screening in three Finnish residential areas: comprehensive population-based study of breast cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality 1976-2009.British journal of cancer · 2015Article
- Overdiagnosis: epidemiologic concepts and estimation.Epidemiology and health · 2015Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo quantify the magnitude of overdiagnosis from non-progressive disease detected by screening mammography, after adjustment for the potential for lead time bias, secular trend in the underlying risk of breast cancer, and opportunistic screening.
designApproximate bayesian computation analysis with a stochastic simulation model designed to replicate standardised incidence rates of breast cancer. The model components included the lifetime probability of breast cancer, the natural course of breast cancer, and participation in organised and opportunistic mammography screening.
settingIsère, a French administrative region with nearly 1.2 million inhabitants.
participantsAll women living in Isère and aged 50-69 during 1991-2006.
main outcome measuresOverdiagnosis, defined as the proportion of non-progressive cancers among all cases of invasive cancer and carcinoma in situ detected 1991-2006.
resultsIn 1991-2006, overdiagnosis from non-progressive disease accounted for 1.5% of all cases of invasive cancer (95% credibility interval 0.3% to 2.9%) and 28.0% of all cases of carcinoma in situ (2.2% to 59.8%) detected either clinically or by screening mammography in Isère. When analysis was restricted to the cancers detected by screening mammography only, the estimates of overdiagnosis were 3.3% (0.7% to 6.5%) and 31.9% (2.9% to 62.3%) for invasive cancer and carcinomas in situ, respectively.
conclusionOverdiagnosis from the detection of non-progressive disease by screening mammography was limited in 1991-2006 in Isère. Because carcinoma in situ accounted for less than 15% of all incident breast cancer cases, its contribution to overdiagnosis was relatively limited and imprecise.
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