Evidence map›Paper›PMID 22084114›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2011

Modeling rotavirus strain dynamics in developed countries to understand the potential impact of vaccination on genotype distributions.

Virginia E Pitzer, Manish M Patel, Ben A Lopman, Cécile Viboud, Umesh D Parashar, Bryan T Grenfell

Abstract readComparative Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
41citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

41 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Pooled it
  4. Article
  5. Contribution of the EuroRotaNet surveillance network to rotavirus strain surveillance in Europe.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Virginia E PitzerDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. vepitzer@princeton.edu
Manish M Patel
Ben A Lopman
Cécile Viboud
Umesh D Parashar
Bryan T Grenfell

Funding

Infrastructure for Population Research at PrincetonR24HD047879 · NICHD · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI MASSEY, DOUGLAS S · 2004 to 2013
$7.3M
Synthesizing the Evolutionary and Ecological Dynamics of Acute RNA Viruses: CompaR01GM083983 · NIGMS · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI GRENFELL, BRYAN · 2008 to 2011
$1.1M
NICHD NIH HHS R24 HD047879NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM083983NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM083983-01
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding how immunity shapes the dynamics of multistrain pathogens is essential in determining the selective pressures imposed by vaccines. There is currently much interest in elucidating the strain dynamics of rotavirus to determine whether vaccination may lead to the replacement of vaccine-type strains. In developed countries, G1P[8] strains constitute the majority of rotavirus infections most years, but occasionally other genotypes dominate for reasons that are not well understood. We developed a mathematical model to examine the interaction of five common rotavirus genotypes. We explored a range of estimates for the relative strength of homotypic vs. heterotypic immunity and compared model predictions against observed genotype patterns from six countries. We then incorporated vaccination in the model to examine its impact on rotavirus incidence and the distribution of strains. Our model can explain the coexistence and cyclical pattern in the distribution of genotypes observed in most developed countries. The predicted frequency of cycling depends on the relative strength of homotypic vs. heterotypic immunity. Vaccination that provides strong protection against G1 and weaker protection against other strains will likely lead to an increase in the relative prevalence of non-G1 strains, whereas a vaccine that provides equally strong immunity against all strains may promote the continued predominance of G1. Overall, however, disease incidence is expected to be substantially reduced under both scenarios and remain below prevaccination levels despite the possible emergence of new strains. Better understanding of homotypic vs. heterotypic immunity, both natural and vaccine-induced, will be critical in predicting the impact of vaccination.

Indexed as

Models, ImmunologicalSelection, GeneticVaccinationDeveloped CountriesGenotypeHumansPopulation DynamicsRotavirusRotavirus InfectionsSpecies SpecificityViral VaccinesViral Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID22084114
PMCPMC3228484

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.