ArticleJournal of theoretical biology2012
Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks.
Article in Journal of theoretical biology, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
37 citing papers in PubMed.
- Redefining and estimating the early-phase reproduction ratio for epidemic outbreaks in spatially structured populations.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Risk and Spatial Spread of a Measles Outbreak in Texas.Viruses · 2026Article
- Estimating Re and overdispersion in secondary cases from the size of identical sequence clusters of SARS-CoV-2.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Estimating the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from the size distribution of clusters of identical pathogen sequences.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- A beta-Poisson model for infectious disease transmission.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Temporal Pattern of the Emergence of a Mutant Virus Escaping Cross-Immunity and Stochastic Extinction Within a Host.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Transmission Characteristics and Inactivated Vaccine Effectiveness Against Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 Variants in Urumqi, China.JAMA network open · 2023Article
- Quantifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission Dynamics Across Global Settings: A Systematic Analysis.American journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Transmission characteristics and inactivated vaccine effectiveness against transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 variant in Shenzhen, China.Frontiers in immunology · 2023Article
- Modeling scenarios for mitigating outbreaks in congregate settings.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- An open-access database of infectious disease transmission trees to explore superspreader epidemiology.PLoS biology · 2022Article
- Characterizing tuberculosis transmission dynamics in high-burden urban and rural settings.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Quantifying the future risk of dengue under climate change in Japan.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- The Epidemic Risk of Dengue Fever in Japan: Climate Change and Seasonality.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2021Article
- Clustering and superspreading potential of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Hong Kong.Nature medicine · 2020Article
- BeyondJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Sub- or supercritical transmissibilities in a finite disease outbreak: Symmetry in outbreak properties of a disease conditioned on extinction.Journal of theoretical biology · 2019Article
- Genotype-Specific Measles Transmissibility: A Branching Process Analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018Article
- A primer on the use of probability generating functions in infectious disease modeling.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Use of the final size distribution of minor outbreaks for the estimation of the reproduction numbers of supercritical epidemic processes has yet to be considered. We used a branching process model to derive the final size distribution of minor outbreaks, assuming a reproduction number above unity, and applying the method to final size data for pneumonic plague. Pneumonic plague is a rare disease with only one documented major epidemic in a spatially limited setting. Because the final size distribution of a minor outbreak needs to be normalized by the probability of extinction, we assume that the dispersion parameter (k) of the negative-binomial offspring distribution is known, and examine the sensitivity of the reproduction number to variation in dispersion. Assuming a geometric offspring distribution with k=1, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.97-1.38). When less dispersed with k=2, the maximum likelihood estimate of the reproduction number was 1.14. These estimates agreed with those published from transmission network analysis, indicating that the human-to-human transmission potential of the pneumonic plague is not very high. Given only minor outbreaks, transmission potential is not sufficiently assessed by directly counting the number of offspring. Since the absence of a major epidemic does not guarantee a subcritical process, the proposed method allows us to conservatively regard epidemic data from minor outbreaks as supercritical, and yield estimates of threshold values above unity.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.