ArticleJournal of pain and symptom management2012
Development of a prognostic model for six-month mortality in older adults with declining health.
Article in Journal of pain and symptom management, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Application of machine learning approaches in predicting clinical outcomes in older adults - a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC geriatrics · 2023Pooled it
- Patient-reported physical functioning predicts the success of hematopoietic cell transplantation (BMT CTN 0902).Cancer · 2016Trial
- Indicators of mortality risk in ageing horses.GeroScience · 2025Article
- The impact of knowledge of hospitalization on mortality predictions.Health services & outcomes research methodology · 2025Article
- Performance of the Physical Functioning Activities of Daily Living Scale in the 2020 Medicare Health Outcomes Survey.Archives of physical medicine and rehabilitation · 2024Article
- Measuring population health: association of self-rated health and PROMIS measures with social determinants of health in a cross-sectional survey of the US population.Health and quality of life outcomes · 2021Article
- Random survival forests using linked data to measure illness burden among individuals before or after a cancer diagnosis: Development and internal validation of the SEER-CAHPS illness burden index.International journal of medical informatics · 2021Article
- Predicting need for advanced illness or palliative care in a primary care population using electronic health record data.Journal of biomedical informatics · 2019Article
- PROMISQuality of life research : an international journal of quality of life aspects of treatment, care and rehabilitation · 2018Article
- Association of Kidney Disease Quality of Life (KDQOL-36) with mortality and hospitalization in older adults receiving hemodialysis.BMC nephrology · 2018Article
- Discussing prognosis and treatment goals with patients with advanced cancer: A qualitative analysis of oncologists' language.Health expectations : an international journal of public participation in health care and health policy · 2017Article
- Importance and added value of functional impairment to predict mortality: a cohort study in Swedish medical inpatients.BMJ open · 2017Article
- Article
- Factors Affecting Physicians' Intentions to Communicate Personalized Prognostic Information to Cancer Patients at the End of Life: An Experimental Vignette Study.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2016Article
- Performance of the Medicare Consumer Assessment of Health Care Providers and Systems (CAHPS) Physical Functioning Items.Medical care · 2016Article
- Physicians' perceptions of the value of prognostic models: the benefits and risks of prognostic confidence.Health expectations : an international journal of public participation in health care and health policy · 2015Article
- Rough set theory based prognostic classification models for hospice referral.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2015Article
- Linking Physical and Mental Health Summary Scores from the Veterans RAND 12-Item Health Survey (VR-12) to the PROMIS(®) Global Health Scale.Journal of general internal medicine · 2015Article
- U.S. General Population Estimate for "Excellent" to "Poor" Self-Rated Health Item.Journal of general internal medicine · 2015Article
- Methodological Considerations When Studying the Association between Patient-Reported Care Experiences and Mortality.Health services research · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
contextEstimation of six-month prognosis is essential in hospice referral decisions, but accurate, evidence-based tools to assist in this task are lacking.
objectivesTo develop a new prognostic model, the Patient-Reported Outcome Mortality Prediction Tool (PROMPT), for six-month mortality in community-dwelling elderly patients.
methodsWe used data from the Medicare Health Outcomes Survey linked to vital status information. Respondents were 65 years old or older, with self-reported declining health over the past year (n=21,870), identified from four Medicare Health Outcomes Survey cohorts (1998-2000, 1999-2001, 2000-2002, and 2001-2003). A logistic regression model was derived to predict six-month mortality, using sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL), ascertained by measures of activities of daily living and the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 Health Survey; k-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate model performance, which was compared with existing prognostic tools.
resultsThe PROMPT incorporated 11 variables, including four HRQOL domains: general health perceptions, activities of daily living, social functioning, and energy/fatigue. The model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic=0.75) and calibration. Overall diagnostic accuracy was superior to existing tools. At cut points of 10%-70%, estimated six-month mortality risk sensitivity and specificity ranged from 0.8% to 83.4% and 51.1% to 99.9%, respectively, and positive likelihood ratios at all mortality risk cut points ≥40% exceeded 5.0. Corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 23.1%-64.1% and 85.3%-94.5%. Over 50% of patients with estimated six-month mortality risk ≥30% died within 12 months.
conclusionThe PROMPT, a new prognostic model incorporating HRQOL, demonstrates promising performance and potential value for hospice referral decisions. More work is needed to evaluate the model.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.