ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2011
The long-term effect of current and new interventions on the new case detection of leprosy: a modeling study.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 51 citations in OpenAlex.
- Advancing Mycobacterium leprae transmission research: Insights from the R2STOP fund.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- A Review of the Efficacy, Safety, and Feasibility of Rifamycin-Based Post-Exposure Chemoprophylaxis for Leprosy.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Review
- The Epidemiological Impact of Community-Based Skin Camps on Leprosy Control in East Hararghe Zone, Ethiopia: a Modelling Study.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2025Article
- The Neurological Impact of Leprosy: Manifestations and Treatment Approaches.Neurology international · 2024Review
- Case detection delay in leprosy: Testing tool reliability and measurement consistency in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Tanzania.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Development of a questionnaire to determine the case detection delay of leprosy: A mixed-methods cultural validation study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Article
- The long-term impact of the Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program on leprosy incidence: A modelling study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Towards the elimination of leprosy in Yunnan, China: A time-series analysis of surveillance data.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- A comprehensive research agenda for zero leprosy.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020Article
- Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) efficacy of rifampin, rifapentine, moxifloxacin, minocycline, and clarithromycin in a susceptible-subclinical model of leprosy.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Comprehensive measures succeeded in improving early detection of leprosy cases in post-elimination era: Experience from Shandong province, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- The State of Affairs in Post-Exposure Leprosy Prevention: A Descriptive Meta-Analysis on Immuno- and Chemo-Prophylaxis.Research and reports in tropical medicine · 2020Review
- Prospects for new leprosy diagnostic tools, a narrative review considering ELISA and PCR assays.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2020Review
- Predicting the impact of household contact and mass chemoprophylaxis on future new leprosy cases in South Tarawa, Kiribati: A modelling study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Minimum requirements and optimal testing strategies of a diagnostic test for leprosy as a tool towards zero transmission: A modeling study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
- High frequency of M. leprae DNA detection in asymptomatic household contacts.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches.Epidemics · 2017Article
- Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2016Article
- Leprosy New Case Detection Trends and the Future Effect of Preventive Interventions in Pará State, Brazil: A Modelling Study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAlthough the number of newly detected leprosy cases has decreased globally, a quarter of a million new cases are detected annually and eradication remains far away. Current options for leprosy prevention are contact tracing and BCG vaccination of infants. Future options may include chemoprophylaxis and early diagnosis of subclinical infections. This study compared the predicted trends in leprosy case detection of future intervention strategies.
methodsSeven leprosy intervention scenarios were investigated with a microsimulation model (SIMCOLEP) to predict future leprosy trends. The baseline scenario consisted of passive case detection, multidrug therapy, contact tracing, and BCG vaccination of infants. The other six scenarios were modifications of the baseline, as follows: no contact tracing; with chemoprophylaxis; with early diagnosis of subclinical infections; replacement of the BCG vaccine with a new tuberculosis vaccine ineffective against Mycobacterium leprae ("no BCG"); no BCG with chemoprophylaxis; and no BCG with early diagnosis.
findingsWithout contact tracing, the model predicted an initial drop in the new case detection rate due to a delay in detecting clinical cases among contacts. Eventually, this scenario would lead to new case detection rates higher than the baseline program. Both chemoprophylaxis and early diagnosis would prevent new cases due to a reduction of the infectious period of subclinical cases by detection and cure of these cases. Also, replacing BCG would increase the new case detection rate of leprosy, but this effect could be offset with either chemoprophylaxis or early diagnosis.
conclusionsThis study showed that the leprosy incidence would be reduced substantially by good BCG vaccine coverage and the combined strategies of contact tracing, early diagnosis, and treatment of infection and/or chemoprophylaxis among household contacts. To effectively interrupt the transmission of M. leprae, it is crucial to continue developing immuno- and chemoprophylaxis strategies and an effective test for diagnosing subclinical infections.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.