ArticleCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2011
The impact of obesity on the rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence: estimates from a disease simulation model.
Article in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 39 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systems science and childhood obesity: a systematic review and new directions.Journal of obesity · 2013Pooled it
- Computing lifetime incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma and age-specific prevalence of Barrett's esophagus.Diseases of the esophagus : official journal of the International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus · 2025Article
- Evolving Therapeutic Strategies in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Advances and Perspectives.Journal of cancer prevention · 2024Review
- The Salivary Microbiome and Predicted Metabolite Production Are Associated with Barrett's Esophagus and High-Grade Dysplasia or Adenocarcinoma.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2024Article
- Comparison of neoadjuvant regimens for resectable gastroesophageal junction cancer: a systematic review of randomized clinical trials across three decades.Journal of gastrointestinal oncology · 2022Review
- Global burden and epidemiology of Barrett oesophagus and oesophageal cancer.Nature reviews. Gastroenterology & hepatology · 2021Review
- Article
- Alterations to the Esophageal Microbiome Associated with Progression from Barrett's Esophagus to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2019Article
- Emerging Insights into the Esophageal Microbiome.Current treatment options in gastroenterology · 2018Review
- Potential Role of the Microbiome in Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.Digestive diseases and sciences · 2016Review
- Worldwide Inverse Association between Gastric Cancer and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Suggesting a Common Environmental Factor Exerting Opposing Effects.The American journal of gastroenterology · 2016Article
- Age-specific risk factor profiles of adenocarcinomas of the esophagus: A pooled analysis from the international BEACON consortium.International journal of cancer · 2016Article
- Reflux control is important in the management of Barrett's Esophagus: results from a retrospective 1,830 patient cohort.Surgical endoscopy · 2015Article
- Risk factors affecting the Barrett's metaplasia-dysplasia-neoplasia sequence.World journal of gastrointestinal endoscopy · 2015Review
- Childhood body mass index in relation to future risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma.British journal of cancer · 2015Article
- Imaging of Ventricular Fibrillation and Defibrillation: The Virtual Electrode Hypothesis.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2015Review
- The role of obesity in oesophageal cancer development.Therapeutic advances in gastroenterology · 2014Review
- Predicting regression of Barrett's esophagus: results from a retrospective cohort of 1342 patients.Surgical endoscopy · 2014Article
- Exploring the recent trend in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality using comparative simulation modeling.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2014Article
- The rapid rise in gastroesophageal junction tumors: is inflammation of the gastric cardia the underwater iceberg?Gastroenterology · 2013Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe United States has experienced an alarming and unexplained increase in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) since the 1970s. A concurrent increase in obesity has led some to suggest a relationship between the two trends. We explore the extent of this relationship.
methodsUsing a previously validated disease simulation model of white males in the United States, we estimated EAC incidence 1973 to 2005 given constant obesity prevalence and low population progression rates consistent with the early 1970s. Introducing only the observed, rising obesity prevalence, we calculated the incremental incidence caused by obesity. We compared these with EAC incidence data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry to determine obesity's contribution to the rise therein. Incidences were converted to absolute numbers of cases using U.S. population data.
resultsUsing constant obesity prevalence, we projected a total of 30,555 EAC cases cumulatively over 1973 to 2005 and 1,151 in 2005 alone. Incorporating the observed obesity trend resulted in 35,767 cumulative EACs and 1,608 in 2005. Estimates derived from SEER data showed 111,223 cumulative and 7,173 cases in 2005. We conclude that the rise in obesity accounted for 6.5% of the increase in EAC cases that occurred from 1973 to 2005 and 7.6% in the year 2005.
conclusionUsing published OR for EAC among obese individuals, we found that only a small percentage of the rise in EAC incidence is attributable to secular trends in obesity. IMPACT: Other factors, alone and in combination, should be explored as causes of the EAC epidemic.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.