Evidence map›Paper›PMID 21896828›Full record

ArticleClinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN2011

Model to predict mortality in critically ill adults with acute kidney injury.

Sevag Demirjian, Glenn M Chertow, Jane Hongyuan Zhang, Theresa Z O'Connor, Joseph Vitale, Emil P Paganini, Paul M Palevsky, VA/NIH Acute Renal Failure Trial Network

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Article in Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 62 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
62citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

62 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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2 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Sevag DemirjianDepartment of Nephrology and Hypertension, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH 44195, USA. demirjs@ccf.org
Glenn M Chertow
Jane Hongyuan Zhang
Theresa Z O'Connor
Joseph Vitale
Emil P Paganini
Paul M Palevsky
VA/NIH Acute Renal Failure Trial Network

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

objectivesAcute kidney injury (AKI) requiring dialysis is associated with high mortality. Most prognostic tools used to describe case complexity and to project patient outcome lack predictive accuracy when applied in patients with AKI. In this study, we developed an AKI-specific predictive model for 60-day mortality and compared the model to the performance of two generic (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA] and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II]) scores, and a disease specific (Cleveland Clinic [CCF]) score. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Data from 1122 subjects enrolled in the Veterans Affairs/National Institutes of Health Acute Renal Failure Trial Network study; a multicenter randomized trial of intensive versus less intensive renal support in critically ill patients with AKI conducted between November 2003 and July 2007 at 27 VA- and university-affiliated centers.

resultsThe 60-day mortality was 53%. Twenty-one independent predictors of 60-day mortality were identified. The logistic regression model exhibited good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.85 (0.83 to 0.88), and a derived integer risk score yielded a value of 0.80 (0.77 to 0.83). Existing scoring systems, including APACHE II, SOFA, and CCF, when applied to our cohort, showed relatively poor discrimination, reflected by areas under the ROC curve of 0.68 (0.64 to 0.71), 0.69 (0.66 to 0.73), and 0.65 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively.

conclusionsOur new risk model outperformed existing generic and disease-specific scoring systems in predicting 60-day mortality in critically ill patients with AKI. The current model requires external validation before it can be applied to other patient populations.

Indexed as

Acute Kidney InjuryAdultAgedCritical IllnessFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalROC Curve

Identifiers

PMID21896828
PMCPMC3359007

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.