Evidence map›Paper›PMID 21878462›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2011

Multiplicity of data in trial reports and the reliability of meta-analyses: empirical study.

Britta Tendal, Eveline Nüesch, Julian P T Higgins, Peter Jüni, Peter C Gøtzsche

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 12 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 12 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 12 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  11. Predictors of persistent pain after breast cancer surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2016
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  17. Standards for design and measurement would make clinical research reproducible and usable.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Britta TendalNordic Cochrane Centre, Rigshospitalet, Blegdamsvej 9, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark. bt@cochrane.dk
Eveline Nüesch
Julian P T Higgins
Peter Jüni
Peter C Gøtzsche

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_U105285807
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo examine the extent of multiplicity of data in trial reports and to assess the impact of multiplicity on meta-analysis results.

designEmpirical study on a cohort of Cochrane systematic reviews. DATA SOURCES: All Cochrane systematic reviews published from issue 3 in 2006 to issue 2 in 2007 that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD). We retrieved trial reports contributing to the first SMD result in each review, and downloaded review protocols. We used these SMDs to identify a specific outcome for each meta-analysis from its protocol. Review methods Reviews were eligible if SMD results were based on two to ten randomised trials and if protocols described the outcome. We excluded reviews if they only presented results of subgroup analyses. Based on review protocols and index outcomes, two observers independently extracted the data necessary to calculate SMDs from the original trial reports for any intervention group, time point, or outcome measure compatible with the protocol. From the extracted data, we used Monte Carlo simulations to calculate all possible SMDs for every meta-analysis.

resultsWe identified 19 eligible meta-analyses (including 83 trials). Published review protocols often lacked information about which data to choose. Twenty-four (29%) trials reported data for multiple intervention groups, 30 (36%) reported data for multiple time points, and 29 (35%) reported the index outcome measured on multiple scales. In 18 meta-analyses, we found multiplicity of data in at least one trial report; the median difference between the smallest and largest SMD results within a meta-analysis was 0.40 standard deviation units (range 0.04 to 0.91).

conclusionsMultiplicity of data can affect the findings of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. To reduce the risk of bias, reviews and meta-analyses should comply with prespecified protocols that clearly identify time points, intervention groups, and scales of interest.

Indexed as

Meta-Analysis as TopicRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicReview Literature as TopicBiasHumansMonte Carlo Method

Identifiers

PMID21878462
PMCPMC3171064

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.