ArticleBritish journal of cancer2011
Prediction of higher mortality reduction for the UK Breast Screening Frequency Trial: a model-based approach on screening intervals.
Article in British journal of cancer, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Implementation and process evaluation of three interventions to promote screening mammograms delivered for 4 years in a large primary care population.Translational behavioral medicine · 2017Trial
- Cost-effectiveness of AI-enhanced breast cancer screening in Iran: a microsimulation study.Health economics review · 2026Article
- The natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ: development, validation, and estimated outcomes of the SimDCIS model.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Article
- Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Breast Cancer Screening Using Mammography in Singapore: A Modeling Study.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2021Article
- Simulating the Impact of Risk-Based Screening and Treatment on Breast Cancer Outcomes with MISCAN-Fadia.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018Article
- Is mammography screening history a predictor of future breast cancer risk?European journal of epidemiology · 2015Article
- Estimating breast cancer mortality reduction and overdiagnosis due to screening for different strategies in the United Kingdom.British journal of cancer · 2014Article
- Tipping the balance of benefits and harms to favor screening mammography starting at age 40 years: a comparative modeling study of risk.Annals of internal medicine · 2012Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe optimal interval between two consecutive mammograms is uncertain. The UK Frequency Trial did not show a significant difference in breast cancer mortality between screening every year (study group) and screening every 3 years (control group). In this study, the trial is simulated in order to gain insight into the results of the trial and to predict the effect of different screening intervals on breast cancer mortality.
methodsUK incidence, life tables and information from the trial were used in the microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia to simulate the trial and predict the number of breast cancer deaths in each group. To be able to replicate the trial, a relatively low sensitivity had to be assumed.
resultsThe model simulated a larger difference in tumour size distribution between the two groups than observed and a relative risk (RR) of 0.83 of dying from breast cancer in the study group compared with the control group. The predicted RR is lower than that reported from the trial (RR 0.93), but within its 95% confidence interval (0.63-1.37).
conclusionThe present study suggests that there is benefit of shortening the screening interval, although the benefit is probably not large enough to start annual screening.
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