ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2011
Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed.
- Underrepresentation of bats in Africa's protected areas.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026Article
- Human pressures threaten diet-specialized mammal communities.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Article
- A Snapshot of the Global Trade of South African Native Vertebrate Species Not Listed on CITES.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- Sampling environmental DNA from trees and soil to detect cryptic arboreal mammals.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Expert range maps of global mammal distributions harmonised to three taxonomic authorities.Journal of biogeography · 2022Article
- Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk.Global change biology · 2021Article
- Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2020Article
- Spatial and taxonomic biases in bat records: Drivers and conservation implications in a megadiverse country.Ecology and evolution · 2019Article
- Global projections of future cropland expansion to 2050 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage.Global change biology · 2018Article
- Research trends and geographical distribution of mammalian carnivores in Portugal (SW Europe).PloS one · 2018Article
- Distribution of mammal functional diversity in the Neotropical realm: Influence of land-use and extinction risk.PloS one · 2017Article
- Article
- Modeling the impact of climate change on wild Piper nigrum (Black Pepper) in Western Ghats, India using ecological niche models.Journal of plant research · 2016Article
- Distribution, congruence, and hotspots of higher plants in China.Scientific reports · 2016Article
- Climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases: The butterfly effect.International journal for parasitology. Parasites and wildlife · 2015Article
- Socio-economic and ecological impacts of global protected area expansion plans.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2015Article
- Historical drivers of extinction risk: using past evidence to direct future monitoring.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2015Article
- Spatial mismatch of phylogenetic diversity across three vertebrate groups and protected areas in Europe.Diversity & distributions · 2014Article
- Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2014Article
- Estimating species richness and modelling habitat preferences of tropical forest mammals from camera trap data.PloS one · 2014Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.
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