ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2012
Influenza emergence in the face of evolutionary constraints.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Divergent pathogenic mechanisms of influenza A and influenza B viruses.Archives of microbiology · 2026Review
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions and the emergence of pathogen variants.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2023Article
- Asynchrony between virus diversity and antibody selection limits influenza virus evolution.eLife · 2020Article
- Dynamic interactions of influenza viruses in Hong Kong during 1998-2018.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology.Trends in microbiology · 2018Review
- Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
- Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2).Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2016Article
- Prediction, dynamics, and visualization of antigenic phenotypes of seasonal influenza viruses.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2016Article
- Self-enforcing regional vaccination agreements.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Article
- Capturing the dynamics of pathogens with many strains.Journal of mathematical biology · 2016Review
- Environmental dependence of genetic constraint.PLoS genetics · 2013Article
- The antigenic evolution of influenza: drift or thrift?Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2013Article
- A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift.Journal of biological dynamics · 2013Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Different influenza subtypes can evolve at very different rates, but the causes are not well understood. In this paper, we explore whether differences in transmissibility between subtypes can play a role if there are fitness constraints on antigenic evolution. We investigate the problem using a mathematical model that separates the interaction of strains through cross-immunity from the process of emergence for new antigenic variants. Evolutionary constraints are also included with antigenic mutation incurring a fitness cost. We show that the transmissibility of a strain can become disproportionately important in dictating the rate of antigenic drift: strains that spread only slightly more easily can have a much higher rate of emergence. Further, we see that the effect continues when vaccination is considered; a small increase in the rate of transmission can make it much harder to control the frequency at which new strains emerge. Our results not only highlight the importance of considering both transmission and fitness constraints when modelling influenza evolution, but may also help in understanding the differences between the emergence of H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes.
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