ArticleVaccine2011
The potential impact of an HIV vaccine with rapidly waning protection on the epidemic in Southern Africa: examining the RV144 trial results.
Article in Vaccine, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- The changing cost-effectiveness of primary HIV prevention: simple calculations of direct effects.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Article
- Understanding the performance of HIV-1 viral vector vaccines: adenovirus and poxvirus case studies.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Review
- The repeated setbacks of HIV vaccine development laid the groundwork for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.Health policy and technology · 2022Article
- Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation.NPJ vaccines · 2021Article
- Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Article
- Competing biomedical HIV prevention strategies: potential cost-effectiveness of HIV vaccines and PrEP in Seattle, WA.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- Taking stock of the present and looking ahead: envisioning challenges in the design of future HIV prevention efficacy trials.The lancet. HIV · 2019Review
- HIV population-level adaptation can rapidly diminish the impact of a partially effective vaccine.Vaccine · 2018Article
- Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact.Health research policy and systems · 2017Article
- Prospects for HIV control in South Africa: a model-based analysis.Global health action · 2016Article
- The Case for Adolescent HIV Vaccination in South Africa: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.Medicine · 2016Article
- Are Clade Specific HIV Vaccines a Necessity? An Analysis Based on Mathematical Models.EBioMedicine · 2015Article
- Stakeholder Engagement in HIV Cure Research: Lessons Learned from Other HIV Interventions and the Way Forward.AIDS patient care and STDs · 2015Review
- Drug users' willingness to encourage social, sexual, and drug network members to receive an HIV vaccine: a social network analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2014Article
- Will HIV vaccination reshape HIV risk behavior networks? A social network analysis of drug users' anticipated risk compensation.PloS one · 2014Article
- Current trends in negative immuno-synergy between two sexually transmitted infectious viruses: HIV-1 and HSV-1/2.Current trends in immunology · 2012Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe prime-boost HIV vaccine regimen used in the recent RV144 trial resulted in modest efficacy of 31% over 3.5 years, but was substantially higher in the first year post-vaccination. We sought to explore the potential impact of a vaccine with rapidly waning efficacy in a South African population.
methodsWe explored two strategies using a dynamic compartmental epidemic model for heterosexual transmission of HIV: [1] vaccination of a single cohort (30%, 60% or 90% of the initial population), with exponentially waning efficacy, but booster vaccinations at 5- or 2-year intervals, and [2] continuous vaccination of the unvaccinated population at the same coverage levels (30%, 60% or 90%) but with a constant efficacy vaccine of short duration. We also examined potential changes in post-vaccination condom use.
resultsThe single cohort vaccination strategies did not have a substantial impact on HIV prevalence, although without boosters they still prevented 2-6% of the expected infections at 20 years, depending on the population coverage. The 5-year and 2-year booster strategies prevented 8-24% and 17-45% of the expected infections, respectively. Continuous vaccination to maintain population coverage levels resulted in more substantial reductions in population HIV prevalence and greater numbers of infections prevented: HIV prevalence at 20 years was reduced from 23% to 8-14% and the number of expected infections was decreased by 34-59%, depending on the population coverage level. Moderate changes in post-vaccination condom use did not substantially affect these outcomes.
conclusionsAn HIV vaccine with partial efficacy and declining protection similar to the RV144 vaccine could prevent a substantial proportion of HIV infections if booster vaccinations were effective and available. Our estimates of the population impact of vaccination would be improved by further understanding of the duration of protection, the effectiveness of booster vaccination, and whether the vaccine efficacy varies between subpopulations at higher and lower risk of exposure.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.