ArticleVaccine2011
The potential impact of RV144-like vaccines in rural South Africa: a study using the STDSIM microsimulation model.
Article in Vaccine, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Evidence Gaps in Economic Evaluations of HIV Interventions Targeting Young People: A Systematic Review.The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine · 2024Pooled it
- Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Biomedical, Non-Surgical HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Literature Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2023Pooled it
- Dynamic Transmission Economic Evaluation of Infectious Disease Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Literature Review.Health economics · 2016Pooled it
- Impact of high-risk sex and focused interventions in heterosexual HIV epidemics: a systematic review of mathematical models.PloS one · 2012Pooled it
- Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Adolescent- and Young-Adult-Focused HIV Interventions Incorporating HIV Transmission: a Scoping Review of Modeling Methods and Proposed Guidance.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2025Review
- The changing cost-effectiveness of primary HIV prevention: simple calculations of direct effects.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Article
- Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation.NPJ vaccines · 2021Article
- Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Structural Design and Data Requirements for Simulation Modelling in HIV/AIDS: A Narrative Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2019Review
- Competing biomedical HIV prevention strategies: potential cost-effectiveness of HIV vaccines and PrEP in Seattle, WA.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- The future of a partially effective HIV vaccine: assessing limitations at the population level.International journal of public health · 2019Article
- Article
- Projected effectiveness and added value of HIV vaccination campaigns in South Africa: A modeling study.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- HIV population-level adaptation can rapidly diminish the impact of a partially effective vaccine.Vaccine · 2018Article
- Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact.Health research policy and systems · 2017Article
- The Potential Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Vaccines: A Systematic Review.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2017Article
- Are Clade Specific HIV Vaccines a Necessity? An Analysis Based on Mathematical Models.EBioMedicine · 2015Article
- Innovations in health and demographic surveillance systems to establish the causal impacts of HIV policies.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2015Review
- Human immunodeficiency virus vaccines.Infectious disease clinics of North America · 2014Review
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe only successful HIV vaccine trial to date is the RV144 trial of the ALVAC/AIDSVAX vaccine in Thailand, which showed an overall incidence reduction of 31%. Most cases were prevented in the first year, suggesting a rapidly waning efficacy. Here, we predict the population level impact and cost-effectiveness of practical implementation of such a vaccine in a setting of a generalised epidemic with high HIV prevalence and incidence.
methodsWe used STDSIM, an established individual-based microsimulation model, tailored to a rural South African area with a well-functioning HIV treatment and care programme. We estimated the impact of a single round of mass vaccination for everybody aged 15-49, as well as 5-year and 2-year re-vaccination strategies for young adults (aged 15-29). We calculated proportion of new infections prevented, cost-effectiveness indicators, and budget impact estimates of combined ART and vaccination programmes.
resultsA single round of mass vaccination with a RV144-like vaccine will have a limited impact, preventing only 9% or 5% of new infections after 10 years at 60% and 30% coverage levels, respectively. Revaccination strategies are highly cost-effective if vaccine prices can be kept below 150 US$/vaccine for 2-year revaccination strategies, and below 200 US$/vaccine for 5-year revaccination strategies. Net cost-savings through reduced need for HIV treatment and care occur when vaccine prices are kept below 75 US$/vaccine. These results are sensitive to alternative assumptions on the underlying sexual network, background prevention interventions, and individual's propensity and consistency to participate in the vaccination campaign. DISCUSSION: A modestly effective vaccine can be a cost-effective intervention in highly endemic settings. To predict the impact of vaccination strategies in other endemic situations, sufficient knowledge of the underlying sexual network, prevention and treatment interventions, and individual propensity and consistency to participate, is key. These issues are all best addressed in an individual-based microsimulation model.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.