ArticleBMC infectious diseases2011
Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature.BMC infectious diseases · 2014Pooled it
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- Activity-based epidemic propagation and contact network scaling in auto-dependent metropolitan areas.Scientific reports · 2021Article
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- Modeling epidemic spreading through public transit using time-varying encounter network.Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies · 2021Article
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- An agent-based model to evaluate the COVID-19 transmission risks in facilities.Computers in biology and medicine · 2020Article
- Symbolic transfer entropy reveals the age structure of pandemic influenza transmission from high-volume influenza-like illness data.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak: comparing the dynamics in the 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world.Nonlinear dynamics · 2020Article
- Recalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings.BMC infectious diseases · 2016Article
- Modeling workplace contact networks: The effects of organizational structure, architecture, and reporting errors on epidemic predictions.Network science (Cambridge University Press) · 2015Article
- Temporal and spatial monitoring and prediction of epidemic outbreaks.IEEE journal of biomedical and health informatics · 2015Article
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- Mitigation of infectious disease at school: targeted class closure vs school closure.BMC infectious diseases · 2014Article
- 4Flu - an individual based simulation tool to study the effects of quadrivalent vaccination on seasonal influenza in Germany.BMC infectious diseases · 2014Article
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6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
unlabelledworld has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread.
methodsWe present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns.
resultsThe simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east.
conclusionsWe show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial.
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