Evidence map›Paper›PMID 21525976›Full record

ArticlePloS one2011

Factors influencing the emergence and spread of HIV drug resistance arising from rollout of antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).

Ume L Abbas, Gregory Hood, Arthur W Wetzel, John W Mellors

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Review
  8. Risk Perception, Sexual Behaviors, and PrEP Adherence Among Substance-Using Men Who Have Sex with Men: a Qualitative Study.Prevention science : the official journal of the Society for Prevention Research · 2017
    Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Observational
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. How could preventive therapy affect the prevalence of drug resistance? Causes and consequences.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2015
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Ume L AbbasDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio, United States of America. abbasu@ccf.org
Gregory Hood
Arthur W Wetzel
John W Mellors

Funding

WOMEN'S HEALTH AGENDAU01AI038858 · NIAID · SOCIAL AND SCIENTIFIC SYSTEMS, INC. · PI BENSON, CONSTANCE ANN · 1996 to 2008
$157.5M
Microbicide Trials NetworkU01AI068633 · NIAID · MAGEE-WOMEN'S RES INST AND FOUNDATION · PI HILLIER, SHARON L. · 2006 to 2010
$77.0M
Impact of ARV Chemoprophylaxis on Emergence and Spread of HIV Drug ResistanceR21AI078789 · NIAID · CLEVELAND CLINIC LERNER COM-CWRU · PI ABBAS, UME L · 2008 to 2009
$445k
NIAID NIH HHS R21 AI078789NIAID NIH HHS R21AI078789NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI038858NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI068633NIAID NIH HHS U01AI068633NIAID NIH HHS U01AI38858PHS HHS 20XS190A
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe potential for emergence and spread of HIV drug resistance from rollout of antiretroviral (ARV) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important public health concern. We investigated determinants of HIV drug resistance prevalence after PrEP implementation through mathematical modeling. METHODOLOGY: A model incorporating heterogeneity in age, gender, sexual activity, HIV infection status, stage of disease, PrEP coverage/discontinuation, and HIV drug susceptibility, was designed to simulate the impact of PrEP on HIV prevention and drug resistance in a sub-Saharan epidemic. PRINCIPAL

findingsAnalyses suggest that the prevalence of HIV drug resistance is influenced most by the extent and duration of inadvertent PrEP use in individuals already infected with HIV. Other key factors affecting drug resistance prevalence include the persistence time of transmitted resistance and the duration of inadvertent PrEP use in individuals who become infected on PrEP. From uncertainty analysis, the median overall prevalence of drug resistance at 10 years was predicted to be 9.2% (interquartile range 6.9%-12.2%). An optimistic scenario of 75% PrEP efficacy, 60% coverage of the susceptible population, and 5% inadvertent PrEP use predicts a rise in HIV drug resistance prevalence to only 2.5% after 10 years. By contrast, in a pessimistic scenario of 25% PrEP efficacy, 15% population coverage, and 25% inadvertent PrEP use, resistance prevalence increased to over 40%.

conclusionsInadvertent PrEP use in previously-infected individuals is the major determinant of HIV drug resistance prevalence arising from PrEP. Both the rate and duration of inadvertent PrEP use are key factors. PrEP rollout programs should include routine monitoring of HIV infection status to limit the spread of drug resistance.

Indexed as

Anti-HIV AgentsDrug Resistance, ViralHIVHIV InfectionsHumansTreatment OutcomeUncertaintyAnti-HIV Agents

Identifiers

PMID21525976
PMCPMC3078109

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.