ArticleBiostatistics (Oxford, England)2011
Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men.
Article in Biostatistics (Oxford, England), 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Age-specific transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the first 2 years of the pandemic.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men accessing STI clinics: Optimizing HIV PrEP implementation.PloS one · 2022Article
- How simulation modeling can support the public health response to the opioid crisis in North America: Setting priorities and assessing value.The International journal on drug policy · 2021Article
- Article
- Evidence Synthesis for Stochastic Epidemic Models.Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics · 2018Article
- A Method to Estimate the Size and Characteristics of HIV-positive Populations Using an Individual-based Stochastic Simulation Model.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2016Article
- A Bayesian approach to estimate changes in condom use from limited human immunodeficiency virus prevalence data.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics · 2016Article
- Incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women in England: two methods of estimation.Epidemiology and infection · 2014Article
- An evidence synthesis approach to estimating the incidence of seasonal influenza in the Netherlands.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2014Article
- Fully Bayesian hierarchical modelling in two stages, with application to meta-analysis.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics · 2013Article
- Evidence synthesis for decision making 5: the baseline natural history model.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2013Article
- HIV incidence in men who have sex with men in England and Wales 2001-10: a nationwide population study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2013Article
- Evidence synthesis through a degradation model applied to myocardial infarction.Lifetime data analysis · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Understanding infectious disease dynamics and the effect on prevalence and incidence is crucial for public health policies. Disease incidence and prevalence are typically not observed directly and increasingly are estimated through the synthesis of indirect information from multiple data sources. We demonstrate how an evidence synthesis approach to the estimation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in England and Wales can be extended to infer the underlying HIV incidence. Diverse time series of data can be used to obtain yearly "snapshots" (with associated uncertainty) of the proportion of the population in 4 compartments: not at risk, susceptible, HIV positive but undiagnosed, and diagnosed HIV positive. A multistate model for the infection and diagnosis processes is then formulated by expressing the changes in these proportions by a system of differential equations. By parameterizing incidence in terms of prevalence and contact rates, HIV transmission is further modeled. Use of additional data or prior information on demographics, risk behavior change and contact parameters allows simultaneous estimation of the transition rates, compartment prevalences, contact rates, and transmission probabilities.
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