ArticleVeterinary research2011
Estimating front-wave velocity of infectious diseases: a simple, efficient method applied to bluetongue.
Article in Veterinary research, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 49 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Exploratory Report of Wild Boar Surveillance and Epidemiological Course of African Swine Fever Outbreak; Case in the Republic of Korea From 2019 to 2023.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- How fast are viruses spreading in the wild?PLoS biology · 2024Article
- Spatial and temporal analysis of African swine fever front-wave velocity in wild boar: implications for surveillance and control strategies.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- Eco-Sanitary Regionalization of Wild Boar (Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2023Article
- Spatio-temporal clusters and patterns of spread of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Effect of Constant Temperatures onInsects · 2022Article
- Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- EpiExploreR: A Shiny Web Application for the Analysis of Animal Disease Data.Microorganisms · 2019Article
- Red deer (Viruses · 2019Article
- Quantifying the roles of host movement and vector dispersal in the transmission of vector-borne diseases of livestock.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
- Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2014Article
- Bluetongue, Schmallenberg - what is next? Culicoides-borne viral diseases in the 21st Century.BMC veterinary research · 2014Article
- A spatial simulation model for the dispersal of the bluetongue vector Culicoides brevitarsis in Australia.PloS one · 2014Article
- Did vaccination slow the spread of bluetongue in France?PloS one · 2014Article
- The influence of the wind in the Schmallenberg virus outbreak in Europe.Scientific reports · 2013Article
- Seasonal and spatial heterogeneities in host and vector abundances impact the spatiotemporal spread of bluetongue.Veterinary research · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Understanding the spatial dynamics of an infectious disease is critical when attempting to predict where and how fast the disease will spread. We illustrate an approach using a trend-surface analysis (TSA) model combined with a spatial error simultaneous autoregressive model (SAR(err) model) to estimate the speed of diffusion of bluetongue (BT), an infectious disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) and transmitted by Culicoides. In a first step to gain further insight into the spatial transmission characteristics of BTV serotype 8, we used 2007-2008 clinical case reports in France and TSA modelling to identify the major directions and speed of disease diffusion. We accounted for spatial autocorrelation by combining TSA with a SAR(err) model, which led to a trend SAR(err) model. Overall, BT spread from north-eastern to south-western France. The average trend SAR(err)-estimated velocity across the country was 5.6 km/day. However, velocities differed between areas and time periods, varying between 2.1 and 9.3 km/day. For more than 83% of the contaminated municipalities, the trend SAR(err)-estimated velocity was less than 7 km/day. Our study was a first step in describing the diffusion process for BT in France. To our knowledge, it is the first to show that BT spread in France was primarily local and consistent with the active flight of Culicoides and local movements of farm animals. Models such as the trend SAR(err) models are powerful tools to provide information on direction and speed of disease diffusion when the only data available are date and location of cases.
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Registered trials
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