ArticleJAMA2011
A predictive model for progression of chronic kidney disease to kidney failure.
Article in JAMA, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06274710 (Open Access Digital CommunitY Promoting Self-Care, Peer Support, and HEalth LitEracy), which is not on this map. Cited by 674 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Open Access Digital CommunitY Promoting Self-Care, Peer Support, and HEalth LitEracy (ODYSSEE) for Kidney Health (KH) Trial
Who cites it
674 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Prediction models for progression from diabetic kidney disease to end-stage renal disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Pooled it
- Representation of multimorbidity and frailty in the development and validation of kidney failure prognostic prediction models: a systematic review.BMC medicine · 2024Pooled it
- Cardiorenal risk stratification in high-risk type 2 diabetes using a simple clinical score: findings from the ELIXA trial.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Trial
- Simultaneous initiation of finerenone and empagliflozin across the spectrum of kidney risk in the CONFIDENCE trial.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2025Trial
- The long-term effects of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease: a time-to-event analysis.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2024Trial
- Pediatric clinician perspectives on clinical decision support tools for chronic kidney disease risk after preterm birth.Pediatric nephrology (Berlin, Germany) · 2026Article
- Kidney failure risk equation and early renal risk in adults with sickle cell disease: comparison with KDIGO classification using measured GFR.Renal failure · 2026Article
- Heterogeneity in the efficacy of bosentan for hypertensive nephropathy: a study on individualized benefit prediction models based on pathological subtyping and dynamic trajectories.Annals of medicine · 2026Article
- Predicting High-Risk CKD in Japanese People: Model Development and Validation.Kidney international reports · 2026Article
- Risk of Progression and Costs of Care for Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease.Kidney medicine · 2026Article
- Vascular Access Surgery Timing: A Prospective European Cohort Study in Elderly Patients with ESKD.Kidney360 · 2026Observational
- Development and external validation of an explainable machine learning model for predicting chronic kidney disease progression in the Korean population.Kidney research and clinical practice · 2026Article
- PREDICT Tool for Pregnancy-Associated CKD Progression.Kidney international reports · 2026Article
- Association of UACR and UPCR with kidney failure: analysis of observational data in patients with rare kidney diseases.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2026Observational
- Trajectories of Serum Total Carbon Dioxide and the Risk of Cardiorenal Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease: Results From the KNOW-CKD Study.Kidney medicine · 2026Article
- A deep learning model for opportunistic screening of chronic kidney disease using chest radiographs: a multicentre validation study in the USA.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Article
- Risk factors and prediction model of renal dysfunction in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a retrospective cohort study.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Early Posttransplant urine ammonium-pH index levels and graft outcomes in kidney transplant recipients.Pflugers Archiv : European journal of physiology · 2026Observational
- Deciding between conservative kidney management and dialysis in older people with kidney failure: a narrative review.Clinical kidney journal · 2026Review
- A Microsimulation-Based Approach for Mitigating Societal Bias in Chronic Kidney Disease Data.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2026Article
614 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
contextChronic kidney disease (CKD) is common. Kidney disease severity can be classified by estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria, but more accurate information regarding risk for progression to kidney failure is required for clinical decisions about testing, treatment, and referral.
objectiveTo develop and validate predictive models for progression of CKD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND
participantsDevelopment and validation of prediction models using demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from 2 independent Canadian cohorts of patients with CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated GFR, 10-59 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) who were referred to nephrologists between April 1, 2001, and December 31, 2008. Models were developed using Cox proportional hazards regression methods and evaluated using C statistics and integrated discrimination improvement for discrimination, calibration plots and Akaike Information Criterion for goodness of fit, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) at 1, 3, and 5 years.
main outcome measureKidney failure, defined as need for dialysis or preemptive kidney transplantation.
resultsThe development and validation cohorts included 3449 patients (386 with kidney failure [11%]) and 4942 patients (1177 with kidney failure [24%]), respectively. The most accurate model included age, sex, estimated GFR, albuminuria, serum calcium, serum phosphate, serum bicarbonate, and serum albumin (C statistic, 0.917; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.901-0.933 in the development cohort and 0.841; 95% CI, 0.825-0.857 in the validation cohort). In the validation cohort, this model was more accurate than a simpler model that included age, sex, estimated GFR, and albuminuria (integrated discrimination improvement, 3.2%; 95% CI, 2.4%-4.2%; calibration [Nam and D'Agostino χ(2) statistic, 19 vs 32]; and reclassification for CKD stage 3 [NRI, 8.0%; 95% CI, 2.1%-13.9%] and for CKD stage 4 [NRI, 4.1%; 95% CI, -0.5% to 8.8%]).
conclusionA model using routinely obtained laboratory tests can accurately predict progression to kidney failure in patients with CKD stages 3 to 5.
Indexed as
Identifiers
21482743What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.