ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2011
Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 79 papers.
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79 citing papers in PubMed, 166 citations in OpenAlex.
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global burden of pertussis: An analysis of trends and the emergence of an immunity gap.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Understanding the Epidemiology and Contributing Factors of Post-COVID-19 Pertussis Outbreaks: A Narrative Review.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2026Review
- Revealing trends in measles immunity during periods of varying measles circulation in Madagascar.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Natural immune boosting biases pertussis infection estimates in seroprevalence studies.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Bistability and complex bifurcation diagrams generated by waning and boosting of immunity.Journal of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Pertussis in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Resurgence, Diagnosis, and Management.Infection & chemotherapy · 2025Review
- Pertussis in the Tshwane District, Gauteng province, South Africa: A cross-sectional study.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Article
- Molecular epidemiological characteristics of pertussis in a pediatric hospital in Jinan City, China, 2022 to 2024.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Optimal vaccination policy to prevent endemicity: a stochastic model.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Effects of boosting and waning in highly exposed populations on dengue epidemic dynamics.Science translational medicine · 2023Article
- Coronavirus herd immunity optimizer to solve classification problems.Soft computing · 2023Article
- Coronavirus herd immunity optimizer with greedy crossover for feature selection in medical diagnosis.Knowledge-based systems · 2022Article
- The impact of infection-derived immunity on disease dynamics.Journal of mathematical biology · 2021Article
- Prioritizing vaccination by age and social activity to advance societal health benefits in Norway: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2021Article
- A geometric analysis of the SIRS epidemiological model on a homogeneous network.Journal of mathematical biology · 2021Article
- Switching vaccination among target groups to achieve improved long-lasting benefits.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Recent increase in pertussis incidence in Korea: an age-period-cohort analysis.Epidemiology and health · 2021Article
- Modeling the waning and boosting of immunity from infection or vaccination.Journal of theoretical biology · 2020Article
19 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Incidence of whooping cough, unlike many other childhood diseases for which there is an efficacious vaccine, has been increasing over the past twenty years despite high levels of vaccine coverage. Its reemergence has been particularly noticeable among teenagers and adults. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain these two patterns, but parsimonious reconciliation of clinical data on the limited duration of immunity with both pre- and postvaccine era age-specific incidence remains a challenge. We consider the immunologically relevant, yet epidemiologically largely neglected, possibility that a primed immune system can respond to a lower dose of antigen than a naive one. We hypothesize that during the prevaccine era teenagers' and adults' primed immunity was frequently boosted by reexposure, so maintaining herd immunity in the face of potentially eroding individual immunity. In contrast, low pathogen circulation in the current era, except during epidemic outbreaks, allows immunity to be lost before reexposure occurs. We develop and analyze an age-structured model that encapsulates this hypothesis. We find that immune boosting must be more easily triggered than primary infection to account for age-incidence data. We make age-specific and dynamical predictions through bifurcation analysis and simulation. The boosting model proposed here parsimoniously captures four key features of pertussis data from highly vaccinated countries: (i) the shift in age-specific incidence, (ii) reemergence with high vaccine coverage, (iii) the possibility for cyclic dynamics in the pre- and postvaccine eras, and (iv) the apparent shift from susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR)-like to susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS)-like phenomenology of infection and immunity to Bordetella pertussis.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.