ArticleMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
How does early detection by screening affect disease progression? Modeling estimated benefits in prostate cancer screening.
Article in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 46 citations in OpenAlex.
- Strong association between reduction of late-stage cancers and reduction of cancer-specific mortality in meta-regression of randomized screening trials across multiple cancer types.Journal of medical screening · 2024Pooled it
- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in the UK: A Decision Model Analysis Based on the CAP Trial.PharmacoEconomics · 2022Trial
- Cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening: a simulation study based on ERSPC data.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2015Trial
- To be screened or not to be screened? Modeling the consequences of PSA screening for the individual.British journal of cancer · 2012Trial
- The impact of PLCO control arm contamination on perceived PSA screening efficacy.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2012Trial
- Patient Perspectives on AI-Powered Medical Robots in Breast and Prostate Cancer Care: Qualitative Study.JMIR cancer · 2026Article
- Cost effectiveness analysis of prostate cancer screening strategies in Germany: A microsimulation study.International journal of cancer · 2025Article
- Multi-cancer early detection tests: Attributes for clinical implementation.Cancer biomarkers : section A of Disease markers · 2025Article
- Clinical performance and utility: A microsimulation model to inform the design of screening trials for a multi-cancer early detection test.Journal of medical screening · 2024Article
- Dying To Find Out: The Cost of Time at the Dawn of the Multicancer Early Detection Era.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023Review
- Modelled mortality benefits of multi-cancer early detection screening in England.British journal of cancer · 2023Article
- Stage Shift as an Endpoint in Cancer Screening Trials: Implications for Evaluating Multicancer Early Detection Tests.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2022Article
- Evaluation of Prostate Cancer Screening Strategies in a Low-Resource, High-risk Population in the Bahamas.JAMA health forum · 2022Article
- Racial/Ethnic Differences in Cancer Diagnosed after Metastasis: Absolute Burden and Deaths Potentially Avoidable through Earlier Detection.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2022Article
- Cellular rewiring in lethal prostate cancer: the architect of drug resistance.Nature reviews. Urology · 2020Review
- Evaluating Parameter Uncertainty in a Simulation Model of Cancer Using Emulators.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2019Article
- Identifying Patients for Whom Lung Cancer Screening Is Preference-Sensitive: A Microsimulation Study.Annals of internal medicine · 2018Article
- Cost-effectiveness of combined serum anti-Helicobacter pylori IgG antibody and serum pepsinogen concentrations for screening for gastric cancer risk in Japan.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2018Article
- Benefits and harms of prostate cancer screening - predictions of the ONCOTYROL prostate cancer outcome and policy model.BMC public health · 2017Article
- Estimating the risks and benefits of active surveillance protocols for prostate cancer: a microsimulation study.BJU international · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSimulation models are essential tools for estimating benefits of cancer screening programs. Such models include a screening-effect model that represents how early detection by screening followed by treatment affects disease-specific survival. Two commonly used screening-effect models are the stage-shift model, where mortality benefits are explained by the shift to more favorable stages, and the cure model, where early detection enhances the chances of cure from disease.
objectiveThis article describes commonly used screening-effect models and analyses their predicted mortality benefit in a model for prostate cancer screening.
methodThe MISCAN simulation model was used to predict the reduction of prostate cancer mortality in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) Rotterdam. The screening-effect models were included in the model. For each model the predictions of prostate cancer mortality reduction were calculated. The study compared 4 screening-effect models, which are versions of the stage-shift model or the cure model.
resultsThe stage-shift models predicted, after a follow-up of 9 years, reductions in prostate cancer mortality varying from 38% to 63% for ERSPC-Rotterdam compared with a 27% reduction observed in the ERSPC. The cure models predicted reductions in prostate cancer mortality varying from 21% to 27%.
conclusionsThe differences in predicted mortality reductions show the importance of validating models to observed trial mortality data. The stage-shift models considerably overestimated the mortality reduction. Therefore, the stage-shift models should be used with care, especially when modeling the effect of screening for cancers with long lead times, such as prostate cancer.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.